Bitcoin's Recovery to $107,000 Pushes 125% Unrealized Profit for Investors

Bitcoin’s recent recovery to $107,000 has pushed the majority of investors back into profit, with the total unrealized profit standing at $1.2 trillion. This significant gain is derived from the market capitalization of $2.13 trillion and the realized capitalization of $955 billion, indicating substantial growth and capital storage in Bitcoin. The MVRV Ratio, which compares market cap to realized cap, shows an average paper gain of 125% per investor, reflecting a healthy level of profitability. Despite this, the realized cap has been rising faster than the market cap, showing strong capital inflows without excessive price increases.

Investor behavior during recent geopolitical tensions highlights the resilience of the market. Following a sharp sell-off due to increased tensions, Bitcoin dipped to $99,000 before recovering as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire was put in place. This level of $98,300, which is also the Short-Term Holder cost basis, has historically acted as a support zone during previous corrections, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum. Investors maintained their positions rather than exiting, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.

The Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply has reached an all-time high of 14.7 million BTC, indicating that more investors are choosing to hold rather than distribute. Coins purchased during the January breakout are maturing into long-term holdings, reflecting constructive market behavior. The Liveliness metric, which measures spending, continues to trend downward, suggesting that HODLing is gaining strength. During earlier peaks, Liveliness rose sharply, but this time, no such pattern has emerged, indicating a market less inclined to sell despite being near previous highs.

The Sell-Side Risk Ratio is currently low, suggesting a balanced market. Short-Term Holders are no longer distributing as aggressively, aligning with the idea that current levels are not attractive enough to warrant selling. Long-Term Holders have also reduced spending after a brief rise near the recent all-time high, reinforced by a drop in realized profit and loss volumes, along with continued accumulation trends. This behavior reflects a preference for holding rather than rotating into liquidity, supporting the thesis that the current market is relatively stable.

Stablecoins remain an essential part of the crypto market liquidity infrastructure. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), currently around 1, shows a balance between Bitcoin supply and USD-denominated capital. Compared to the initial breakout above $100,000, current SSR readings suggest improved buying power. The Exchange Buying Power metric, which tracks the flow of stablecoins versus BTC and ETH on exchanges, shows a slowdown in fresh stablecoin inflows, suggesting that capital may be rotating from stablecoins into major assets, potentially acting as a source of support for price levels.

Institutional flows remain robust, with U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs having continuous net inflows, with a 7-day average of $298 million. The continued demand from institutions will fuel the positive environment and confidence of buyers, as well as help absorb supply side pressures. This confluence of behavior—including strong ETF flows, limited profit-taking, rising realized cap, and consistent HODLing—suggests the market is in a phase of consolidation rather than distribution. The sustained downtrend in Liveliness, in combination with muted sell-side risk, paints a picture of a market where investors are largely comfortable with current positions.

With the market still near record profitability, but without large-scale sell-offs, Bitcoin’s next major move may require a shift in macroeconomic conditions or a renewed wave of demand. Until then, investor posture appears patient and strategically aligned with a longer-term view. The market’s resilience and the continued accumulation of Bitcoin by long-term holders suggest a stable and potentially bullish outlook for the future.