Bitcoin's RSI Near Historic Lows: A Convincing Case for a 2026 Bull Market Rebound

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has painted a compelling picture of cyclical exhaustion. On November 26, 2025, Bitcoin closed at $87,310.33, a level that, while volatile, coincided with one of the weakest 30-day RSI readings in years according to YCharts. According to the VanEck Crypto Monthly Recap, Bitcoin's RSI dipped to approximately 32 during November 2025-the lowest level since June 2022. This metric, historically a harbinger of rebounds, now sits in the "oversold" territory (25–35), a range that has often preceded significant price recoveries. When combined with macroeconomic tailwinds, including regulatory clarity and institutional adoption, the case for a 2026 bull market rebound becomes not just plausible but compelling.

Technical Analysis: RSI and On-Chain Signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. A reading below 30 typically signals oversold conditions, suggesting a potential reversal.

. Bitcoin's RSI near 32 in November 2025 aligns with historical patterns where the asset has rebounded after extended bearish phases. For instance, during the 2018–2019 bear market, Bitcoin's RSI hit similar levels before a 300% rally in 2019.

On-chain data further reinforces this narrative. The Puell Multiple entered the "buy" zone in late 2025. This indicator, which historically correlates with accumulation phases, suggests that miners are reducing their selling pressure-a sign of capitulation. Additionally, whale activity has shown signs of accumulation, with large addresses increasing their holdings during the November selloff according to on-chain data. These signals, coupled with the RSI's proximity to historic lows, create a technical foundation for a near-term rebound and a stronger 2026 bull run.

Macroeconomic Alignment: Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Clarity

While technical indicators provide a near-term roadmap, the broader macroeconomic environment is the bedrock of Bitcoin's 2026 outlook. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has been a watershed moment, unlocking trillions in institutional capital. As noted in Grayscale's 2026 Digital Asset Outlook, these ETFs have normalized Bitcoin as an asset class, with institutional investors now prioritizing regulatory certainty and liquidity. The anticipated passage of the GENIUS Act and crypto market structure legislation in 2026 will further solidify this trend, reducing legal ambiguity and attracting conservative capital.

Monetary policy also plays a critical role. The Federal Reserve's December 2025 rate cuts have created a more accommodative environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin. While the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike introduces volatility, the overall trend of global liquidity expansion-driven by AI-driven economic growth and fiscal stimulus-supports Bitcoin's role as a hedge against inflation according to JPMorgan research. J.P. Morgan's 2026 market outlook highlights that AI investment and resilient global growth could mitigate recession risks, further bolstering demand for alternative assets.

Risks and the Path Forward

No bullish case is complete without addressing risks. The November 2025 crash, triggered by trade war rhetoric and Japanese yield surges, exposed the market's fragility. Additionally, the Bank of Japan's tightening could disrupt the yen carry trade, a key source of liquidity for crypto markets. However, these risks are secondary to the structural shifts underway. Layer 2 solutions, such as the Lightning Network, are enhancing Bitcoin's scalability, making it more attractive for everyday transactions and institutional use.

Analysts from Valour and Fundstrat project Bitcoin could reach $150,000 to $250,000 by 2026, contingent on the strength of ETF inflows and macroeconomic conditions. The key variable is regulatory execution: if the U.S. continues to provide clear guidelines, Bitcoin's institutional adoption will accelerate, driving prices higher.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's RSI near historic lows, combined with on-chain accumulation and macroeconomic tailwinds, presents a robust case for a 2026 bull market. The alignment of technical indicators with institutional adoption and regulatory progress suggests that the current selloff is a cyclical bottom rather than a permanent setback. While risks persist, the structural forces at play-ETFs, monetary policy, and technological innovation-position Bitcoin to reclaim its role as a leading store of value in the coming year.