Bitcoin's RSI at a Critical Decision Point: Bear Market Threshold or Temporary Correction?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a cornerstone of technical analysis, has positioned Bitcoin at a pivotal juncture in November 2025. With conflicting data points highlighting both bullish and bearish signals, investors must dissect the implications of Bitcoin's monthly RSI to determine whether the market is teetering toward a bearish phase or navigating a temporary correction. This analysis synthesizes technical indicators, historical patterns, and market sentiment to evaluate the trajectory of Bitcoin heading into Q1 2026.

The RSI Dilemma: Divergence in Data

Bitcoin's monthly RSI in November 2025 presents a paradox. On one hand, prominent crypto analyst PlanB reported the RSI at 66, a level consistent with an uptrend and above the 50 threshold typically associated with bullish momentum. On the other, VanEck's analysis noted a starkly different figure: an RSI of 32, the lowest since June 2022's Lido ETH de-peg event, signaling an oversold condition. This discrepancy likely stems from differences in calculation methodologies-such as the specific timeframes or data sources used-underscoring the need for caution when interpreting RSI readings.

Historical Context and Bear Market Thresholds

Historically, the RSI has served as a reliable barometer for market cycles. A monthly RSI below 58.7, often cited as the bull-bear dividing line, has historically preceded bear market conditions. In November 2025, Bitcoin's RSI flirted with this threshold, dropping to 32 in some analyses and stabilizing at 56.5 by December 2025. This proximity to the critical 58.7 level raises concerns about a potential bearish shift, particularly given the divergence between RSI and price action observed between March 2024 and October 2025. Analysts have noted that such divergences often precede downward corrections, as overbought RSI levels fail to align with price peaks.

The Case for a Temporary Correction

While the bearish narrative is compelling, a counterargument emerges from Bitcoin's September 2025 RSI of 69.76, which hovered near overbought territory without triggering a sustained downturn. This suggests that Bitcoin's RSI may not always dictate immediate price action, particularly in markets characterized by strong institutional inflows or macroeconomic tailwinds. Furthermore, a stabilization of the RSI above 55-such as the 56.5 reading in December 2025-could indicate a temporary correction rather than a full-blown bear market. Historical precedents show that RSI levels between 50 and 60 often reflect consolidation phases, where buyers and sellers test equilibrium before a new trend emerges.

### Strategic Outlook for Q1 2026 For investors, the key lies in monitoring Bitcoin's RSI behavior in early 2026. If the RSI remains above 55, supported by positive on-chain metrics (e.g., reduced selling pressure, increased hash rate resilience), a rebound into overbought territory could rekindle bullish momentum. Conversely, a sustained RSI below 50, coupled with declining volume or negative macroeconomic catalysts (e.g., regulatory headwinds, Fed policy shifts), would heighten bear market risks.

A balanced approach would involve hedging against downside risk while maintaining exposure to Bitcoin's long-term potential. Position sizing should reflect the proximity to key RSI thresholds, with stop-loss orders strategically placed near historical support levels. Additionally, investors might consider dollar-cost averaging into positions if the RSI stabilizes in neutral territory (40–60), leveraging volatility as an opportunity rather than a threat.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's RSI in late 2025 has reached a critical inflection point, with conflicting signals demanding nuanced interpretation. While the drop below 58.7 raises bear market concerns, the possibility of a temporary correction remains plausible, particularly if the RSI stabilizes above 55. As Q1 2026 unfolds, technical analysts and investors alike must remain vigilant, using RSI dynamics in tandem with broader market fundamentals to navigate this pivotal chapter in Bitcoin's cycle.