Bitcoin Risks Drop To $69,000 If Pennant Support Breaks, Analyst Warns

Bitcoin has retreated from near-term highs after failing to push above $95,000, raising concerns among analysts that the recent price action may be a bearish reset. Traders are closely watching key support levels, with a breakdown near $89,000 potentially leading to a retest of earlier lows.

Short-term technical indicators remain bearish, with the Death Cross forming on the weekly chart expected to intensify selling pressure. Analysts like Keith Alan of Material Indicators have pointed to macro-level risks and said any bullish moves are likely to be short-lived.

Open interest for BTC/USD has reached new highs despite the declining price, signaling a growing divergence between volatility and price direction. Traders are interpreting this as a sign of deepening bearish conviction among institutional investors.

Why Did This Happen?

The failure of bulls to push above $95,000 has led to a reassessment of the 2026 price outlook. Technical support levels between $87,500 and $89,000 have become focal points, with traders warning that a breakdown could trigger a cascade of selling.

Order-book data has also highlighted imbalances, with whale activity suggesting increased pressure to test lower support levels. Analysts have warned that consolidation around $90,000 will be key before any meaningful recovery can take place.

Bitcoin's ability to form a bullish golden cross on the daily chart will be a key focus for traders in the coming weeks. However, analysts caution that this technical signal is unlikely to trigger a sustained rally unless the broader macro trend shows signs of reversal.

Meanwhile, the $76,000 level remains a key price target among bearish traders. This level, last seen in April 2026, is viewed as a potential baseline for BTC should support in the $89,000 range fail.

Bitcoin ETF inflows have been a bright spot for the market in 2026, with over $1.5 billion flowing into BTC and ETH ETFs since the start of the year. However, this positive trend has not been enough to offset the broader bearish sentiment on high timeframes.

The debate over Bitcoin's long-term trajectory continues. While some analysts remain bullish, citing a potential tokenization supercycle, others emphasize the risks of a deep correction. Bernstein analysts have set a 2026 price target of $150,000, though this forecast is viewed as optimistic given current market conditions.

The coming weeks will be critical for Bitcoin as traders watch for a potential break of key support levels and signs of consolidation. A sustained move above $96,000 could signal a shift back to a bullish structure, while a breakdown near $89,000 may open the door to deeper corrections.