Bitcoin Rises 0.9% in 24 Hours Amid July Uptrend

Bitcoin has shown a slight increase of 0.9% in the last 24 hours, recovering from a dip after its record monthly close at the end of June. July is typically a positive month for Bitcoin, with historical data indicating that it has risen in all but three Julys in the past decade, with an average increase of around 7%. This trend is supported by data from CoinGlass and market maker Wintermute, which shows that July is the only month that pairs relatively strong gains with relatively subdued sentiment.

However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and the current weakness of the dollar may pose a challenge. The DXY index, which measures the U.S. currency against its peers, is at a three-year low and is nearing a death cross on technical charts, an indicator that has consistently marked bottoms for it since 2008. This could potentially impact Bitcoin's performance, as the dollar generally moves in the opposite direction to Bitcoin.

The upcoming U.S. payrolls report on Thursday is expected to provide some clues about the direction of Bitcoin and help signal when the Federal Reserve is likely to trim interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell has maintained that the central bank will “wait and learn” how tariffs shape inflation, keeping policy in limbo. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners and the House vote on his so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” could add up to $3.3 trillion to the already inflated U.S. national debt bill after a razor-thin Senate passage.

Corporate treasuries are also piling in, with publicly listed firms buying roughly 131,000 BTC in the second quarter, an 18% jump that beat the 8% increase in U.S. spot-ETF holdings. This indicates a growing interest in Bitcoin from institutional investors.

On the regulatory front, the CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference is scheduled for September 10 in Washington, allowing general counsels, compliance officers, and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Additionally, several conferences and events related to cryptocurrency and blockchain technology are scheduled for July, including the Ethereum Community Conference in Cannes, France, and the World Venture Forum in Kitzbühel, Austria.

In terms of token events, several governance votes and calls are taking place in July. GnosisDAO is voting on renewing its partnership with Nethermind for Gnosis Chain maintenance and development, while Radiant DAO is voting on potentially compensating users whose wallets were drained via unlimited token approvals in the October 2024 hack. Arbitrum DAO is voting on lowering the constitutional quorum threshold from 5% to 4.5% of votable tokens, and the Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded payment card.

Several token unlocks are also scheduled for July, including Ethena (ENA), Immutable (IMX), Aptos (APT), Starknet (STRK), Sei (SEI), and Arbitrum (ARB). Additionally, several tokens, including Biswap (BSW), Stella (ALPHA), Komodo (KMD), LeverFi (LEVER), and LTO Network (LTO), are set to be delisted from Binance on July 4.