Bitcoin Rises 0.75% Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Decouples From Risk Assets

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight increase of less than 1% on Monday, amidst renewed trade tensions and geopolitical instability in the Indian subcontinent, where India and Pakistan were exchanging small-arms fire. The cryptocurrency rose 0.75% in the past 24 hours, turning positive for the year and decoupling from traditional risk assets as investors questioned the durability of the U.S.’s role as the global financial anchor. The broader market, measured through the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, rose 2.2%.

Stock-index futures in the U.S. are pointing to a slight drop and gold fell over 1% with investors likely taking profit from the precious metal’s 25% year-to-date rally. Equities endured a sell-off after China denied talks with the U.S. to reach a tariff deal.

According to Greg Cipolaro, the global head of research at NYDIG, Bitcoin has acted less like a liquid levered version of levered US equity beta and more like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is. While the cryptocurrency’s longer-term correlation to U.S. equities remains high, the short-term price action points to a market starting to treat BTC less like a tech stock proxy and more like a non-sovereign safe haven.

Options and futures data suggest bitcoin’s rally, which saw it rise 9% last week, is still in its early stages. Funding rates for offshore perpetual swaps only recently turned positive, and call overwriting remains more popular than aggressive bullish positioning. Bitcoin’s appeal as a politically neutral asset appears to be growing. The note shows that since President Donald Trump’s April 2 "Liberation Day," bitcoin has outperformed U.S. Treasuries, the Swiss franc and gold.

The broader backdrop remains volatile. Measures of equity (VIX), bond (MOVE), and currency (CVIX) volatility have jumped in recent weeks. While they are expected to recede slightly, the outlook is for them to remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Despite bitcoin’s growing appeal, macro and geopolitical events remain “the primary drivers of flow,” according to Jake O., an OTC trader at Wintermute who flagged in an email that bitcoin call calendar spreads targeting $110,000 in June remain “the preferred structure for those reaching for topside."

This week investors will see an inflow of major corporate earnings reports, as well as the latest consumer income and expenditure report and April's nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The data could provide further insights into a potential earlier-than-expected interest-rate cut, which Trump has been calling for. Stay alert!