Bitcoin Retests Trendline Amid Bullish Signals, Whales Hold Firm

Bitcoin has recently experienced a retest of its trendline following two consecutive days of bearish price action. This retest comes after a period of consolidation, where the cryptocurrency has been trading near its all-time high. Despite the bearish signals, there are indications that the bullish trendline remains intact. A triangle pattern break could potentially lead to a significant upside movement, suggesting that the overall trend may still be bullish.

On the bearish side, the presence of a doji candlestick at this key level may signal fading momentum and an early indication of a price reversal. This candlestick pattern is often interpreted as a sign of indecision in the market, where neither bulls nor bears are able to gain control. The 1-hour chart for Bitcoin depicts a bullish setup, with a descending trendline drawn from the top of the $105,700 local high made on Monday keeping the price below this level. This setup suggests that there is still potential for upward movement, despite the recent bearish signals.

Fresh on-chain data indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) of Bitcoin are not offloading their holdings, even as the cryptocurrency trades near its all-time high. This behavior signals confidence in further price gains in the coming weeks. Historically, profit-taking activity tends to increase significantly when Bitcoin approaches its previous high, as many investors look to lock in gains. However, current data reveals that LTHs – those who have held Bitcoin for more than 150 days – have not begun large-scale profit-taking. The LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric is heading downwards even as Bitcoin continues to steadily surge toward a new all-time high around $109,000. This decline suggests that long-term holders have not yet engaged in notable profit-taking and instead appear to be accumulating, signaling confidence in higher price targets and anticipating new all-time highs.

The ongoing Bitcoin consolidation phase seems to be driven more by short-term holders (STHs) and retail traders. Historically, these investor segments are more reactive to price swings, responding swiftly to both upward and downward movements. Analysis from a fellow contributor supports this outlook, observing that Bitcoin whales – wallets holding significant Bitcoin holdings – have taken much less profit compared to previous bull runs. This behavior suggests a long-term investment mindset among whales, aligning them more closely with LTHs than retail traders or short-term speculators. It’s fair to say that Bitcoin whales are typically long-term investors, often holding their positions through market cycles, unlike smaller holders who tend to trade more frequently.

Interestingly, comparisons are now being drawn between Bitcoin and gold. Gold has seen impressive gains over the past two years, rising from around $1,800 per ounce in mid-2023 to about $3,200 per ounce today – an increase of nearly 75%. A crypto analyst recently remarked that Bitcoin is likely to follow gold’s footsteps and experience similar extraordinary gains in 2025. The analyst forecasted that Bitcoin may surge as high as $155,000 this year. The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator is pointing toward the continuation of bullish momentum for the apex cryptocurrency. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $101,852, down 1.5% in the past 24 hours.