Bitcoin's Resilient On-Chain Fundamentals and RSI Dynamics Signal a Cautiously Bullish 2025 Market Cycle

Bitcoin's valuation landscape has undergone a seismic shift since the introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. While on-chain metrics like the NVT (Network Value to Transactions) ratio and MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value) Z-Score remain foundational tools for assessing the network's health, their interpretation now requires a nuanced lens that accounts for off-chain dynamics such as ETF inflows and futures positioning according to research. Meanwhile, technical indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) are flashing signals of potential inflection points in the price trajectory. As of late 2025, a synthesis of these metrics suggests a cautiously bullish outlook for Bitcoin, with on-chain fundamentals and RSI dynamics aligning to hint at the early stages of a new bull phase.

On-Chain Fundamentals: A Tale of Two Metrics

The MVRV Z-Score, a statistical measure of Bitcoin's market value relative to its realized value, currently stands at a level far below historical overbought thresholds. As of November 2025, Bitcoin's market price of approximately $105,000 contrasts sharply with a realized price of $47,000, yielding a raw MVRV ratio of 2.26. Standardized via the Z-Score, this reading remains well within undervalued territory, historically associated with accumulation phases according to data. For context, during the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles, the MVRV Z-Score peaked at +8.8 and +7.1, respectively, signaling extreme overvaluation before bear markets ensued. The current Z-Score of ~+2.5 suggests there is still significant upside potential, particularly if institutional demand and ETF inflows continue to drive adoption.

Long-term holders (LTHs), who control the majority of Bitcoin's supply, have an average cost basis of $33,500, with their MVRV ratio at 3.11 according to analysis. This metric historically reaches extremes during market tops-peaking at 12 in 2017 and 2021. A MVRV of 8 for LTHs would imply a price of ~$320,000, assuming current trends persist. Short-term holders (STHs), meanwhile, have a realized price near $97,000, with their MVRV ratio at 1.33-a level that has historically coincided with local tops in 2017 and 2021 according to research. This divergence between LTH and STH metrics underscores a market in transition, where long-term accumulation is outpacing short-term profit-taking.

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), another on-chain metric, has retained its relevance in signaling market sentiment. CDD measures the movement of long-held coins and has historically spiked during market tops and bottoms. In the 2017 bull run, CDD surged as retail investors liquidated long-term holdings amid parabolic price action according to analysis. In contrast, the 2021 cycle saw a more gradual increase in CDD, reflecting institutional-driven demand and a shift away from speculative retail trading according to data. As of late 2025, CDD remains subdued, suggesting that large holders are maintaining their positions-a bullish sign for long-term stability.

Bitcoin's 14-day RSI has plunged to 22.34 as of November 22, 2025-the lowest level since August 2023 according to technical analysis. This oversold condition, while not a guaranteed reversal signal, historically correlates with pauses in downtrends. For example, in late February 2025, the RSI dipped below 30 before Bitcoin bottomed near $75,000 in early April according to market data. The current RSI trajectory, which has risen from 23 to 37 in the previous week, suggests that bullish momentum is beginning to reassert itself according to technical signals.

Price action has also formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on daily charts, a classic technical formation indicating market indecision according to analysis. Bitcoin's price rebounded from an intraday low of $81,000 on November 21 but remains under pressure near $84,000. A breakout above the key resistance level of $88,000 could validate the triangle's bullish potential, while a failure to reclaim this level might push the price toward the April 2025 lows near $75,000 according to market analysis.

The November red candle and a bearish MACD cross on the monthly chart, however, signal caution according to technical indicators. Retail traders have liquidated over $1 billion in long positions, reflecting bearish sentiment according to market data. Institutional activity, while influential in the short term, has not shown signs of deliberate market manipulation according to analysis. This duality-between on-chain accumulation and technical bearishness-highlights the need for a multi-faceted analysis.

Historical Correlations and the Path Forward

Comparing the current cycle to 2017 and 2021 reveals instructive parallels. In 2017, Bitcoin's RSI frequently exceeded 70 during the bull run, while CDD spiked as retail investors liquidated holdings according to technical analysis. In 2021, the RSI remained in the 60s–70s range, reflecting a more measured accumulation phase driven by institutional adoption according to market data. The current RSI of 22.34 aligns more closely with the 2021 pattern, suggesting a controlled buildup rather than a parabolic surge.

The MVRV Z-Score's trajectory also mirrors historical bull cycles. In both 2017 and 2021, the Z-Score reached overbought levels 140–150 days after cycle lows according to analysis. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could be approaching a peak in late Q3 to early Q4 2025. However, the current Z-Score's distance from overbought territory implies that the bull phase may still have room to run.

Conclusion: A Cautiously Bullish Outlook

Bitcoin's on-chain fundamentals and RSI dynamics present a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture for 2025. The MVRV Z-Score and CDD metrics suggest that the market is in an accumulation phase, with long-term holders maintaining a strong cost basis. Meanwhile, the RSI's oversold condition and symmetrical triangle pattern hint at potential rebounds, though structural bearishness-evidenced by the MACD cross and retail liquidations-cannot be ignored according to technical analysis.

For investors, the key takeaway is to monitor the interplay between on-chain and technical indicators. A breakout above $88,000 could signal the start of a new bull phase, while a failure to reclaim this level might prolong the current consolidation. As always, diversification and risk management remain paramount in a market as volatile as Bitcoin's.