Bitcoin Rejects at $97.7K Post-FOMC: 'No Progress If Tariffs Stay,' Says Powell—Is $90K Next or $100K?

The Federal Reserve’s May 2025 FOMC meeting and Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent remarks on trade tariffs have thrust Bitcoin’s price action at $97,700 into the spotlight. With Bitcoin hovering near this critical level, traders are split between optimism for a $100,000 breakout and fears of a retreat toward $90,000. The interplay of macroeconomic pressures, technical dynamics, and institutional shifts will ultimately determine Bitcoin’s next move.

Ask Aime: "Is Bitcoin about to hit $100,000 or fall to $90,000?"

The FOMC Crossroads: Tariffs, Inflation, and Bitcoin’s Macroeconomic Context

The May 1-2 FOMC meeting saw the Fed hold interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, a decision Powell framed as a “wait-and-see” stance amid persistent inflationary risks. However, his comments on trade tariffs—termed “a lingering drag on price stability”—sent ripples through markets. Powell emphasized that unresolved trade disputes with China risked stifling global supply chains, inflating consumer costs, and undermining U.S. job markets. His warning—“No progress on tariffs means no progress on inflation”—underscored the Fed’s impatience with fiscal policymakers.

Ask Aime: "Will Bitcoin break past $100,000 or fall below $90,000 after the FOMC meeting?"

This geopolitical backdrop has amplified Bitcoin’s role as a macro-hedge. With tariffs keeping inflation elevated, traders have flocked to Bitcoin’s scarcity-driven model, driving prices toward $97,700 in early May. Yet, the same uncertainty clouds its path forward.

Technical Struggles at $97,700: A Bullish Linchpin or Bearish Trap?

Bitcoin’s rejection at $97,700 on May 8-9 reveals a battle between bullish momentum and overextended risks:

Ask Aime: "Will Bitcoin's $97,700 hurdle be crossed or held?"

• Bullish Case: The $97,700 zone flipped from resistance to support after Bitcoin briefly pierced $99,421 on May 8. Analysts noted a “bullish continuation pattern” on the 4-hour chart, with rising channel support and higher lows reinforcing upward bias. A daily close above $99,700 would target $103,500 and the 2021 all-time high of $69,000 (adjusted for inflation).

• Bearish Risks: Overbought technicals—RSI at 68.21 on the 30-minute chart and 77.55 weekly—warn of exhaustion. A breakdown below $97,700 could trigger a freefall to $94,500 or $90,000, levels where institutional buyers last accumulated.

The Whale Playbook: Profit-Taking and Strategic Re-Entry

Behind Bitcoin’s volatility lies institutional maneuvering. Over 60,000 BTC (≈$5.9 billion) sold by whales near $97,700 signals disciplined profit-taking, but their moves also hint at confidence. Data from Santiment shows 3 million BTC returned to profit as prices rose, incentivizing holders to lock in gains.

Crucially, whales are not fleeing entirely. One entity re-entered the market by buying 100 BTC at $95,700—a level that now acts as a critical support floor. This strategic re-entry, paired with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, suggests bulls aim to sustain momentum above $97,700.

The $100,000 Threshold: Catalysts and Obstacles

Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 hinges on three factors:

1. Trade Deals and Tariff Resolutions: Trump’s May 8 announcement of a U.K. trade deal—“the biggest in a generation”—alleviated geopolitical risks, boosting Bitcoin by 2.3% in 24 hours. A similar breakthrough with China could supercharge momentum.
2. Fed Policy Shifts: A dovish pivot in June—rates expected to drop to 3.6% by year-end—would reduce the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin.
3. Whale Discipline: If whales continue selling at resistance and buying at support, the $97,700-$100,000 range could form a “buy-the-dip” structure, akin to 2020’s bull run.

Conversely, a failure to resolve tariffs or a hawkish Fed surprise could push Bitcoin below $90,000.

The Bottom Line: $97.7K is the New $69K

Bitcoin’s struggle at $97,700 mirrors its 2021 pivot at $69,000—a psychological anchor that eventually became a springboard. While risks abound, the technical structure and whale activity suggest bulls remain in control.

• Bull Scenario: A weekly close above $99,700 (probability: 60%) unlocks $103,500 and $109,000.
• Bear Scenario: A breakdown below $94,500 (probability: 40%) tests $90,000, but institutional demand there could stabilize the market.

The Fed’s hands are tied on tariffs, but Bitcoin’s finite supply and ETF-driven liquidity offer a hedge against policy stagnation. For now, $97.7K remains the linchpin—it holds, or Bitcoin’s 2025 rally unravels.

Conclusion: Bitcoin’s $97,700 battle is a microcosm of its macro challenges. With trade tensions unresolved and whales strategically playing defense, the path to $100,000 is narrow but feasible. A breakdown below $94,500, however, would force a reckoning with $90,000—a level where 45% of long-term holders are still underwater. For traders, the watchword remains: hold the $97.7K line, or brace for a reset.