Bitcoin's Recovery: Long-Term Holders Cautious Amidst Market Uncertainty

Bitcoin's recovery faces uncertainty as long-term holders remain cautious, despite recent price fluctuations and market sentiment. While some investors, such as Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas and Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, have increased their Bitcoin exposure, the broader market is still grappling with the potential impact of macroeconomic factors and regulatory hurdles.

Analysts warn that Bitcoin's return to its January all-time high of $109,000 may not happen as quickly as some investors hope, given the current market dynamics and the broader macroeconomic landscape. CryptoQuant analyst XBTManager pointed out that Bitcoin is currently in a pullback phase after its ATH and is likely to stay in a period of consolidation for some time. The analyst emphasized that Bitcoin long positions will only become viable once long-term holders resume accumulation, as short-term holders are currently engaging in sell-offs.

Long-term holder supply has seen a significant reduction in recent months. On Dec. 1, long-term holders collectively held about 15.2 million BTC, just days before Bitcoin reached $100,000 on Dec. 5. By Dec. 20, that figure had dropped to 14.7 million BTC, and at present, long-term holder supply has declined to 14.4 million BTC, representing an 800,000 BTC reduction since Dec. 1. This sustained decline in long-term holder supply suggests a cautious approach among institutional and retail investors, which means that Bitcoin's price movements in the near future will depend largely on the broader economic environment and liquidity conditions.

Despite the uncertainty, some investors remain bullish on Bitcoin. Ricardo Salinas, founder and chairman of Grupo Salinas, recently increased his Bitcoin exposure, now allocating 70% of his investment portfolio to Bitcoin-related assets. In an interview, Salinas stated that he is "pretty much all in" on Bitcoin, with the remaining 30% of his investments allocated to gold and gold miners. He has been a strong advocate for Bitcoin over the years and has been working to integrate it into Mexico's financial sector.

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet also expanded its Bitcoin holdings with a $44 million purchase, pushing its total holdings to 2,888 BTC. The firm is still very committed to aggressive accumulation despite the recent market downturns and is considering an international listing to attract global