Bitcoin's Record-Breaking Rally: Is Now the Time to Buy the Dip?

Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 has been a rollercoaster of volatility, marked by sharp corrections and fragile technical structures. As the cryptocurrency trades below critical support levels and faces macroeconomic headwinds, the age-old question resurfaces: Is now the time to "buy the dip"? This analysis examines Bitcoin's technical momentum and macroeconomic catalysts to determine whether the current environment presents a compelling opportunity or a dangerous trap.

Technical Momentum: A Bearish Landscape

Bitcoin's technical indicators paint a starkly bearish picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator confirmed a bearish crossover on the monthly close, a signal that often signals prolonged downward pressure on higher time frames. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50 with a reading of 43.46 on November 13, 2025, indicating subdued momentum and a neutral zone with limited upside potential. Meanwhile, the MACD's negative value of -2,429.28 reinforces the bearish bias, suggesting that selling pressure remains dominant.

Structurally, Bitcoin has broken down from a long-term parallel channel, a development reminiscent of the 2021 bear market's onset. Immediate support levels are now at $99,748.56 and $89,892.76, with a critical psychological threshold at $70,500-a level reinforced by both horizontal support and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. A breakdown below $70,500 could trigger a cascade to deeper support at $66,796.19. Meanwhile, moving averages across most timeframes remain in a downward trajectory, and traders are awaiting a decisive retest of the $110K–$113K resistance zone to confirm a potential reversal.

Bitcoin's price chart in early November 2025, marked by sharp corrections and fragile support levels, is visualized in

as a key reference for technical traders.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Liquidity, Regulation, and Risk Appetite

Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 has been heavily influenced by macroeconomic volatility. The Federal Reserve's 0.25% interest rate cut and the cessation of quantitative tightening initially injected $72.35 billion in liquidity, briefly boosting crypto markets. However, this optimism was short-lived. A prolonged U.S. government shutdown and the October 10 liquidation event-where $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were wiped out-exposed the fragility of market liquidity.

Regulatory pressures have further compounded uncertainty. The European Systemic Risk Board's enforcement of MiCA regulations and the launch of leveraged ETFs have created a complex environment for investors. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's correlation with equities has surged to 0.52 in 2025 from 0.23 in 2024. This shift reflects growing institutional adoption but also ties Bitcoin's fate more closely to traditional markets, where a K-shaped recovery-driven by AI-driven job displacement and uneven economic growth-has created structural divides.

The Federal Reserve's December decision looms large, with an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point cut priced into the market by mid-December. While liquidity injections could provide temporary relief, Bitcoin's underperformance relative to equities-despite a 3.8% annualized U.S. economic growth in Q2 2025-suggests that macroeconomic stability and regulatory clarity will be critical for a sustained recovery.

Is Now the Time to Buy the Dip?

The "buy the dip" strategy hinges on two key factors: the depth of the dip and the likelihood of a rebound. While Bitcoin's 20% monthly drawdown from $126,000 to $82,000 has created attractive entry points for long-term investors, the technical and macroeconomic risks remain significant. The broken parallel channel and fragile on-chain structure-marked by broken supports and realized losses-suggest that further downside is possible.

For risk-tolerant investors, the $70,500 level could serve as a strategic entry point, provided it holds. However, a breakdown below this level would likely trigger a test of $66,796.19, increasing the risk of a prolonged bearish phase. Conversely, a sustained rebound above $110K–$113K could reignite bullish momentum, particularly if the Fed's December rate cut aligns with improved liquidity conditions.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's current environment is a mix of opportunity and peril. While macroeconomic catalysts like liquidity injections and regulatory developments could catalyze a rebound, the technical landscape remains bearish, with critical support levels under pressure. Investors considering a "buy the dip" strategy must weigh the risks of further corrections against the potential for a recovery driven by macroeconomic stability. For now, patience and a disciplined approach-monitoring key levels and the Fed's December decision-may be the most prudent path forward.