Bitcoin's Rebound Before Thanksgiving: A Catalyst for Continued Momentum or a Fleeting Rally?

The pre-Thanksgiving rally in Bitcoin, which pushed the cryptocurrency above $90,000 in late November 2025, has sparked renewed debate about its trajectory. While the surge appears to align with broader market optimism, key factors-ranging from shifting correlations with traditional assets to speculative positioning and macroeconomic signals-suggest a nuanced picture. This analysis examines whether the rally represents a sustainable catalyst for Bitcoin's long-term momentum or a temporary reprieve amid structural headwinds.

Market Correlation: A Tenuous Symbiosis

Bitcoin's recent performance has shown a historically strong positive correlation with the S&P 500 and gold, with the 30-day rolling correlation to the S&P 500 exceeding 70%. However, this alignment has recently fractured. While gold surged over 50% in 2025 and hit record highs, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, driven by the unwinding of leveraged Bitcoin ETF positions and increased gold purchases by Tether. This divergence highlights a shift in investor sentiment, with gold increasingly viewed as a safer haven amid regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic volatility.

The breakdown in Bitcoin's correlation with gold, in particular, raises questions about its role as a "store of value." Historically, Bitcoin and gold have moved in tandem during periods of economic stress, but the November 2025 data suggests diverging narratives: gold's resilience reflects demand for tangible assets, while Bitcoin's price action indicates vulnerability to speculative flows and regulatory pressures.

Derivative Positioning: A Double-Edged Sword

Derivative markets provide critical insights into Bitcoin's speculative dynamics. The November price drop triggered $1.27 billion in long-position liquidations and $250 million in short-position liquidations, underscoring the fragility of leveraged positions . This volatility was exacerbated by the CFTC's announcement of plans to introduce leveraged spot crypto trading in U.S. exchanges, which prompted traders to reposition portfolios and amplify price swings .

Despite these challenges, the pre-Thanksgiving rally saw a reversal in sentiment. Bitcoin's perpetual futures funding rate turned positive at 0.0064% on Binance, signaling a resurgence in bullish bets. This shift was supported by inflows into the BlackRock US Bitcoin ETF, which ended a streak of redemptions, and the absence of significant forced selling. However, the reliance on leveraged positions and the CFTC's regulatory overhauls suggest that derivative-driven momentum remains precarious.

Macroeconomic Signals: A Fed-Driven Narrative

The Federal Reserve's anticipated policy shift in December 2025 is a pivotal factor. As of November 26, 2025, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 79% probability of a rate cut, driven by dovish remarks from officials like John Williams and a softening labor market. Bitcoin's historical negative correlation with interest rates-where easing monetary policy boosts prices-was evident in late 2025, as the asset surged past $85,000 amid rate-cut expectations.

Yet, the Fed's policy trajectory is not without risks. Political pressures could lead to more aggressive rate cuts than warranted by economic fundamentals, potentially fueling short-term growth but creating inflationary risks in 2026. Additionally, Bitcoin's earlier November plunge-triggered by conflicting Fed signals-demonstrates how sensitive the market remains to central bank messaging.

Conclusion: A Fragile Catalyst

Bitcoin's pre-Thanksgiving rebound is underpinned by a mix of macroeconomic optimism, derivative-driven sentiment, and regulatory developments. While the Fed's dovish pivot and ETF inflows suggest a near-term tailwind, the divergence from gold and the fragility of leveraged positions highlight structural vulnerabilities. The rally may serve as a catalyst for further gains if the Fed follows through on rate cuts and regulatory clarity emerges. However, without a resolution to the "store of value" narrative and reduced speculative exposure, the momentum could prove fleeting.

Investors must remain cautious, balancing the allure of a risk-on environment with the realities of a market still grappling with its identity in a post-ETF world.