Will Bitcoin Rebound to $90K by March? BTC Options Suggest Otherwise

Bitcoin fell to below $70,000 in early February 2026, marking a significant correction from previous levels. Analysts suggest the asset remains bearish, with technical indicators like the RSI and MACD signaling strong downward momentum. Institutional investors, however, remain cautious but not entirely disengaged, with new strategies emerging to manage Bitcoin yield at scale.

Bullish, a key player in the crypto space, reported strong fourth-quarter performance in 2025, including $54.6 million in SS&O revenue and $28.9 million in adjusted net income. The company projected 50% year-over-year growth in SS&O revenue for 2026, despite market volatility and regulatory concerns. It cited tokenization and infrastructure developments as key growth drivers.

Institutional interest in Bitcoin yield has seen a resurgence, with platforms like GlobalStake and Babylon Labs offering collateralized, market-neutral strategies. These models reduce smart contract risk and align with traditional finance frameworks, making them more appealing to institutional allocators.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin’s recent correction follows a broader selloff in risk assets, including equities and precious metals. Market participants are reassessing downside risks, with Polymarket data showing a 20% probability of Bitcoin falling to $30K by year-end. The asset’s correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has also declined, suggesting it is no longer moving in tandem with traditional equities.

The crypto market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic events, such as U.S. presidential announcements and regulatory developments, has intensified. Kevin Warsh’s potential nomination as the next Fed Chair has raised concerns about tighter monetary policy, which could further pressure Bitcoin and other speculative assets.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin ETFs have seen mixed flows, with outflows reaching $510 million in the week ending February 2, 2026. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has also declined, indicating reduced speculative activity. Traders are cautious, with many closing positions rather than opening new ones.

Retail and institutional investors alike are watching key support levels, including the $70,000 mark. A break below this threshold could trigger further losses, potentially testing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $65,520.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s ability to rebound in March, with options data suggesting limited conviction in a $90K recovery. Bullish’s CFO highlighted infrastructure developments and tokenized real-world assets as potential tailwinds for 2026, though guidance remains conservative.

The broader economic landscape is also in focus, particularly with the Federal Reserve’s policy path and its impact on real interest rates. Higher real rates could reduce demand for speculative assets like Bitcoin.

Palantir’s recent earnings report highlights a shift in the tech sector toward profitable, AI-driven models. As investors recalibrate expectations for growth and margin expansion, companies like Palantir are setting a new benchmark for the AI economy.

Investors remain divided on Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. While some see value in buying the dip, others warn of further downside risks. Market participants should closely watch key technical levels and macroeconomic developments as the first quarter unfolds.