Bitcoin Rebound: 8.5% Gain After $74,586 Drop, Key Resistance at $81,200

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant rebound after a sharp decline to $74,586, quickly reversing and trading above $81,000. This V-shaped recovery indicates strong bullish defense at a key demand zone, with the extended lower wick on the candle signaling aggressive buying pressure, likely from institutions or large players. This area is now established as strong support, setting the stage for potential upward momentum. Sudden recoveries like this are rarely random and usually indicate strategic accumulation. The current price behavior suggests a psychological shift from fear to opportunity among traders.

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart reveal a classic volatility pattern. A squeeze preceded the sharp drop, hinting at an incoming breakout. The breakdown touched the lower band, but the immediate recovery drove the price back toward the midline (20-SMA), now acting as resistance. The bands have since expanded, confirming increased volatility. A close above the midline—currently around $81,200—could open the door for a move toward $84,000. However, rejection at this level may lead to renewed pressure on support zones. This volatility surge marks a critical moment for short-term trend direction.

The MACD (12,26,9) has printed a bullish crossover, an early signal of a momentum shift. The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, and the histogram is expanding in positive territory. This change aligns with the price rebound, reinforcing the potential for a short-term rally. Although still below the zero line, the steep ascent suggests increasing buying strength. If the histogram continues rising, it would support a bullish continuation toward resistance levels. Traders should remain cautious, however, as false crossovers can occur during consolidation.

A potential double bottom has formed between April 6 and April 9, with both dips finding support near $74,500. The neckline rests near $81,200, which BTC is currently testing. A decisive 4-hour candle close above this neckline would confirm the reversal pattern, targeting $84,000–$86,000. This structure, especially when backed by volume and momentum indicators, is a strong bullish signal. However, failure to break above the neckline could signal a pause or pullback. The next few candles will be crucial in determining whether this setup plays out or fails.

Volume surged during the recovery, validating the price movement. The size and speed of this spike suggest institutional or whale involvement rather than retail speculation. Notably, volume tapered off slightly near $81K, a sign of caution as the price approaches resistance. A renewed volume spike on a breakout above $81,200 would add confidence to a bullish continuation. Without it, the move risks being a short squeeze or temporary bounce. Traders should watch volume closely, especially during tests of key levels, as it often confirms or contradicts price action.

The 20-period SMA, also the Bollinger midline, is now the pivot point. BTC is battling this dynamic resistance, and a clean break above it would shift momentum further in favor of the bulls. Historically, this midline has acted as both support and resistance, making it a crucial area to monitor. A bullish engulfing candle above the SMA could spark a surge toward the upper band, around $85,000. But if the price gets rejected here, bears may regain control, pushing BTC back toward $78,000 or lower. This level is the key battleground for today’s session.

Bitcoin’s direction today depends heavily on how price reacts at the $81,200 neckline and mid-Bollinger level. A successful break and hold above this zone could trigger a rally toward $84,000–$86,000. However, rejection or low-volume consolidation might lead to a retracement toward $78,000 or even a retest of $75,000. MACD and volume will provide critical confirmation either way. With volatility back and strong chart structures in play, BTC is poised for a decisive move. Traders should prepare for both breakout opportunities and defensive setups in case of rejection.