Bitcoin Rebound 7% After Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin has recently navigated through a period of significant volatility, with prices plunging to $98,000 before staging a sharp rebound above the $105,000 mark. This volatility was triggered by geopolitical tensions, specifically the US military’s strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which sparked panic across global markets. However, the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran brought relief, fueling a recovery in Bitcoin’s price.

Despite the intense selling pressure, Bitcoin has managed to hold within a narrow range, indicating strong demand that is absorbing recent profits. This resilience is evident in the on-chain data, which shows that the Realized Cap of the 0–1 month age cohort has surged by $66 billion since mid-April. This metric reflects significant profit-taking activity from short-term holders who entered positions during the rally, with approximately 720,000 BTC sold during this period.

Analysts note that Bitcoin’s ability to absorb this selling volume without collapsing suggests underlying strength in the market. Prices have remained largely within a narrow consolidation range, indicating that buyers are stepping in to match the outflow. This kind of accumulation often signals strength beneath the surface, even when price action appears uncertain.

The broader market is now closely watching to see whether Bitcoin can maintain momentum above $105K and push toward retesting the $109K–$112K resistance zone. Until then, consolidation remains the dominant trend, potentially a calm before the next major move. The 4-hour chart shows a strong rebound from the $98,000 lows, with the price currently hovering around $105,300. This move follows a sharp surge in buying momentum that pushed BTC above the key $103,600 support-turned-resistance level.

The reclaim of this level, combined with a decisive close above the 50 and 100-period moving averages, signals renewed bullish interest. Volume has also spiked significantly during the latest bounce, indicating real market participation and not just a short squeeze. However, BTC is now approaching a major confluence zone between $105,500 and $106,000, where the 200-period moving average and a recent horizontal resistance zone converge. This range has acted as a rejection area several times in June, and price action here will determine if BTC can aim for the next resistance at $109,300.

Until BTC breaks above $106K with strong volume, the broader market structure remains neutral to slightly bullish. The higher low formed during the bounce from $98K gives bulls some confidence, but confirmation will come only if price consolidates above the 200-MA and pushes toward the May highs. This week is expected to be decisive in determining Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory, with bulls managing to regain control in the near term despite elevated uncertainty due to global tensions and macroeconomic headwinds.