Bitcoin's Realized Losses Dominate as Short-Term Holders Sell at 0.9 SOPR

Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range of $82,000 to $86,000 over the past week, showing no clear direction. This consolidation has led to significant unrealized losses for investors who bought at these levels. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Realized Losses are currently dominating the market, with the Profit/Loss Ratio (7DMA) dropping below its critical level of 1. This indicates that the majority of investors are currently realizing losses, particularly among short-term holders.

Bitcoin’s Short-term Holder SOPR has dropped below 1 to settle at 0.9, suggesting that short-term holders are selling at a loss. Bitbo data confirmed that short-term holders faced Unrealized Losses, with their Realized Price standing at $92,174—far above current spot prices near $84,000. However, this drop does not necessarily signal a full-blown capitulation but rather a phase of doubt or potential accumulation. Looking at previous cycles, whenever the ratio reached the +4 STDV deviation from the 365DMA, a local market top consistently formed, followed by a short-term correction during the bull phase.

With a high level of uncertainty prevailing in the markets, there is a better chance that a capitulation phase may unfold, potentially driving realized losses even higher. Although unrealized losses are dominating, investors have not turned to selling. On the contrary, investors are optimistic and expect Bitcoin prices to move higher in the near term. For instance, Bitcoin’s Fund Flow Ratio fell from 0.13 to 0.06 over four days—indicating fewer exchange deposits from retail investors. Moreover, whale behavior echoed this restraint. The exchange whale ratio dropped from 0.51 to 0.37, implying whales were staying put—or even accumulating.

In conclusion, although unrealized losses continue to rise, investors have yet to capitulate. As such, Bitcoin holders are hopeful and expect prices to regain higher levels. If these sentiments can hold, we could see Bitcoin reclaim $86,078. However, if short-term holders start to sell to avoid more losses, BTC will retrace to the lower boundary of the consolidation channel around $82,800.