Bitcoin Realized Losses Decline 50% as Sell-Offs Subside

Bitcoin’s recent market movements have sparked interest among analysts, with on-chain data suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment. According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, the Realized Loss metric, which measures the amount of capital lost when coins are sold below their cost basis, has been trending lower. This indicates that the intense sell-offs observed in February and March may be subsiding, as current loss figures are significantly smaller. The reduction in realized losses hints that panic selling could be waning, potentially signaling that the BTC price is approaching a temporary bottom as market emotions begin to stabilize.

Glassnode’s 6-hour rolling chart of Bitcoin Realized Loss provides a detailed view of the current market trend. During the February and March sell-offs, each dip in the BTC price triggered substantial realized losses, reflecting widespread fear among investors. However, the most recent price drop has shown less extreme spikes in realized losses, suggesting that investors are less inclined to sell at a loss. This behavior could indicate that many reactive sellers have already exited the market. Historically, such capitulation fatigue often signals that the worst of the sell-off may be over, or at least that a stabilization phase is setting in.

While Bitcoin shows signs of stabilization, altcoins have experienced significant declines. Glassnode’s data reveals that the altcoin market cap, excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins, has decreased from $1 trillion in December 2024 to $583 billion. This represents a loss of $417 billion, highlighting the vulnerability of high-risk assets during periods of macro uncertainty. Investors are pulling capital from these assets, underscoring the cautious sentiment across the broader crypto market.

Technical analysis of the BTC price action shows strong upward momentum on the 5-minute chart, forming an uptrend channel with higher highs and lows. The price eventually broke above this channel but began to consolidate sideways near the key resistance at $84,000, indicating possible buyer exhaustion at current levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) consistently hit overbought levels during the rally, suggesting strong buying pressure but also hinting at short-term pullbacks. Overbought readings aligned with local tops, while oversold dips acted as rebound points. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displayed mixed signals, with golden crosses during the rise and more frequent death crosses near resistance, reflecting weakening bullish momentum. A solid support level remains around $81,500, and a break below this level could increase selling pressure.

In conclusion, while the broader crypto market remains cautious, there are early signs that the BTC price might be nearing a short-term bottom. The drop in realized losses suggests that most panic sellers may have already exited, hinting at a slowdown in bearish momentum. Meanwhile, altcoins continue to suffer from sharp capital outflows, reinforcing a clear risk-off sentiment among investors. On the technical front, Bitcoin’s sideways consolidation near resistance and weakening MACD momentum show that bulls are starting to lose steam. However, the strong support at $81,500 could act as a key level for any corrective move. If that zone holds, it may pave the way for a fresh rally. Traders should stay alert and watch price behavior closely for signs of the next decisive move.