Bitcoin's Realized Cap Hits $872 Billion Amid Short-Term Holder Losses, Long-Term Accumulation

Bitcoin's realized cap has reached a record high of $872 billion, but the market's growth has slowed, and profit-taking activities have increased. Short-term holders are currently experiencing significant losses, with an average loss of 18%. This situation suggests that many short-term holders are facing substantial financial pain, which could lead to further selling pressure if they decide to cut their losses. The realized price for short-term holders is $91,600, indicating potential selling pressure if they choose to exit their positions.

Despite the challenges faced by short-term holders, long-term holders have been accumulating Bitcoin. According to recent data, long-term holders have increased their Bitcoin holdings by 297,000 BTC over the past nine days. This accumulation suggests that long-term holders remain confident in Bitcoin's long-term value and are taking advantage of the current market conditions to increase their holdings.

The market's cautious behavior and the slow growth of Bitcoin's realized cap suggest that the market may be entering a consolidation phase. This consolidation is reflected in Bitcoin's price, which has been ranging within a narrow band, hovering above $83,000 and below $86,000 since last Saturday. The tight consolidation reflects market hesitation, as traders and investors brace for a significant move in either direction.

The current market conditions are influenced by global tensions and macroeconomic conditions, which show no signs of improvement. Many analysts argue that a bear market scenario could unfold if economic pressure persists. However, on-chain data tells a slightly more optimistic story. According to the Bitcoin Miners Sentiment chart, miners—often seen as one of the most informed cohorts in the ecosystem—are holding up well. Even with the recent price drop, their sentiment has been on the rise. This resilience suggests that, at least from a long-term perspective, miners still believe in Bitcoin’s upside potential.

As Bitcoin clings to its current range, all eyes are on whether it will break upward into recovery or slide into deeper correction. The next move could define sentiment for weeks to come, especially if macroeconomic catalysts intensify. Until then, the market remains tense, and momentum is building for what could be the next major volatility spike.

The current pullback is being interpreted more as a macro-driven correction than the start of a structural bear market. If global tensions ease and BTC reclaims supply zones above $87,000, it could set the stage for a new leg up in the ongoing cycle. However, the path ahead remains uncertain. To avoid a deeper pullback, bulls must defend the $82,000 level, which now acts as a crucial near-term support. Holding above this mark is essential to prevent bearish continuation, as any drop below $82,000 could accelerate losses and send BTC toward the $75,000 zone—a level not seen since the start of the current correction.

Market sentiment remains cautious amid ongoing global tensions and mixed macroeconomic signals. If bulls can reclaim $89,000, it could trigger a renewed rally and restore short-term confidence in the broader crypto market. Until then, Bitcoin remains in a fragile consolidation phase, with momentum hinging on reclaiming key resistance levels.