Bitcoin Must Reach $110,000 for Alt Season, Says BitMEX Co-Founder

Bitcoin must break through the $110,000 mark and rally towards the $150,000–$200,000 range on rising trading volume for the alt season to begin, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. In a recent interview, Hayes noted that this breakthrough is likely to occur sometime in the summer or early third quarter, after which the rotation into various altcoins will start. Alt season refers to the market phase where altcoins outperform Bitcoin, historically occurring after BTC rallies when traders shift capital from BTC into altcoins seeking greater upside. Bitcoin has led the market in recent weeks, but altcoins have been slower to respond.

Hayes believes that the next altcoin rally will be more selective compared to the explosive rally of 2021, where nearly every token surged regardless of fundamentals. He expects a new narrative to drive attention and speculative trading in specific assets, but warns that many “dino coins” are unlikely to recover. “A lot of those coins have high FDV, low float, no customers, no revenue, just some CEX listings, that went down 95%, I don’t really see why those should do well in the next cycle,” he added.

Hayes, who now manages the Maelstrom fund after receiving a pardon from President Donald Trump earlier this year, expects Bitcoin to climb toward $200,000 in its next surge and reach $250,000 by the end of the year. He projects Bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2028, just as Trump’s term is set to conclude. Bitcoin logged its highest weekly close on May 18, finishing above $106,000 and extending its winning streak to six consecutive weeks. The rally has been fueled by persistent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and steady corporate demand.

Hayes also believes that Ethereum will deliver better returns than Solana in the upcoming 18- to 24-month bull run. This prediction is based on his analysis of the market dynamics and the potential for Ethereum to outperform other altcoins in the next cycle. He expects that the next bull run will be driven by a new narrative, which will attract attention and speculative trading in specific assets. However, he warns that many “dino coins” are unlikely to recover, as they lack fundamentals and have been heavily discounted in the market.