Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million by 2028, Says Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom Fund, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $1 million by 2028. This forecast is based on several macroeconomic factors that Hayes believes will drive the price of Bitcoin to unprecedented heights. According to Hayes, the devaluation of US Treasury bonds and the repatriation of foreign capital will be the primary catalysts for this price surge. He argues that the Federal Reserve's continued money printing and interventionist policies will lead to more inflation, volatility, and capital flight, all of which will benefit Bitcoin.

Hayes paints a grim picture of the US economy, comparing it to the country's expanding waistline, bloated, unhealthy, and in deep denial. He believes that the Federal Reserve's inability to resist hitting the money printer will remain the defining feature of US policy. This, in turn, will create a dependence on monetary stimulus, much like the dependence on big pharma created by processed food. Hayes predicts that the next political move in the US won't be more tariffs but capital controls. As foreign capital starts fleeing US assets, bonds, equities, and real estate, the White House may tax incoming investments to discourage further capital flight. Hayes floated the idea of a 2% annual tax on foreign-held assets, saying it could generate enough cash to eliminate income taxes for most American voters.

Hayes believes that Bitcoin is the only real escape from this slow-moving financial implosion. As Asian investors begin repatriating capital, selling US assets and strengthening their own currencies, Hayes predicts more bond volatility and more dollar weakness. That, in turn, pushes the Fed further into a corner. The cycle becomes self-reinforcing: more volatility, more printing, more capital flight. Bitcoin, however, doesn’t rely on permissioned systems. Even in countries where exchanges are banned, peer-to-peer markets thrive. Hayes stated, “Lord Satoshi hath given unto the faithful, Bitcoin.”

Hayes' prediction is based on the idea that if just 10% of the $33 trillion in foreign portfolio assets held in the US moved into Bitcoin, it would ignite a historic rally. A $1 million BTC price tag, he suggests, could become reality “sometime between now and 2028.” Hayes also predicts that Bitcoin could touch $150,000 this year before altcoins begin their own rally. He cites a mix of market fear, uncertainty, and dovish central bank policies as the driving forces behind this prediction. Hayes believes that the destination is certain, but the journey will be anything but smooth.

Hayes indicates two potential catalysts for a 10x rally of Bitcoin (BTC) price. First, as the "divorce" between Chinese and U.S. economies becomes more and more obvious, U.S. capital (in U.S. Dollars predominantly) will not be deployed abroad any longer. Given the aggregated foreign "portfolio" size of some $33 trillion, Mr. Hayes expects a significant part of it to be utilized for buying Bitcoin (BTC). Even if the exact share of this "investing" hits 10%, it still lays the foundation for unparalleled growth. Also, opportunities to invest in Bitcoin (BTC) will be highlighted by the devaluation of U.S. commercial paper. This process is not something new, Hayes points out, as U.S. treasuries lost 64% and 84% of their value in pairs with gold (XAU) and Bitcoin (BT), respectively, from 2021 to the present. The initial phase of this "slow default" started back in 2008 after the global financial crisis. As such, this trend has only gained traction for at least 17 years.

The year 2028 was chosen as the timeline for Bitcoin (BTC) rally as it is the end of this administration’s tenure and the start of a new election cycle in the U.S. At the same time, Arthur Hayes recommends investors to remain cautious. Personally, as Maelstrom Fund CIO, he reduced risk in January 2025 and increased cash allocation. The prospects of $1 million per BTC do not mean there won’t be opportunities to take tactical short positions, Hayes added, concluding that this road might be "rocky."