Bitcoin’s Rally Tests $100,000 Threshold as US-China Trade Talks Ignite Crypto Optimism

The cryptocurrency market’s recent volatility has centered on a single question: Can Bitcoin (BTC) sustain its climb toward the symbolic $100,000 milestone? Over the past week, traders have pinned their hopes on U.S.-China trade talks, with Bitcoin surging to nearly $97,000 before retreating slightly. The interplay between geopolitical tensions, institutional capital, and technical indicators has created a precarious but compelling narrative for bulls.

The Trade Talks Catalyst

On May 7, Bitcoin surged to $97,200—the highest since mid-2023—after reports indicated U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would engage in trade discussions with Chinese officials in Switzerland. The talks aimed to address punitive tariffs of 145% (U.S.) and 125% (China), which have strangled global trade since April 2025. Bessent’s statement that “current tariffs are unsustainable” fueled optimism, though markets quickly tempered enthusiasm when clarifications revealed the negotiations were in “early stages.”

This tug-of-war between hope and caution reflects the broader crypto market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic signals. Analysts at Crypto Zeinab noted that BTC’s proximity to $100,000 hinges on tangible outcomes from the May 10 talks. “If the U.S. and China signal a path to tariff reduction, we could see a breakout toward $118,000,” they said, citing Fibonacci retracement levels suggesting the next resistance at $99,900.

The Institutional Momentum

Behind the price action lies a surge in institutional demand. Strategy, the crypto-focused firm formerly known as MicroStrategy, announced a $21 billion stock offering to acquire more Bitcoin—a move that underscored its confidence in long-term appreciation. Meanwhile, Japanese firm Metaplanet added 555 BTC ($53.5 million) to its reserves, signaling broader corporate adoption.

These inflows have bolstered Bitcoin’s market cap to $1.92 trillion, with daily trading volume near $34 billion—a level typically associated with “bullish liquidity.” As Rekt Capital analysts observed, “Sustained trading above $93,500 confirms a bullish bias, with $99,000 now a near-term target.”

Risks and Realities

Yet caution persists. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision and lingering geopolitical risks could disrupt the rally. President Trump’s prior statement that he would not sign trade deals “soon” casts a shadow over expectations. Moreover, Bitcoin’s $90,000 level—a key support—could crumble if trade talks stall, triggering a retreat.

Conclusion: A Crossroads for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s path forward is a microcosm of global economic uncertainty. On one hand, the mere prospect of U.S.-China de-escalation has reignited institutional enthusiasm, with $250,000 cited as a potential end-of-year target if macro conditions stabilize. On the other, the $99,900 resistance—a technical hurdle and psychological ceiling—remains formidable.

With $21 billion in new institutional capital poised to enter the market and trade talks dominating the narrative, the next 48 hours will be pivotal. If the U.S. and China signal progress, Bitcoin could breach $100,000 for the first time since 2023—a milestone that would validate crypto’s growing role as an asset class. Conversely, a failure to advance could push BTC below $90,000, testing investor resolve.

As traders await the May 10 talks, one thing is clear: Bitcoin’s ascent is no longer just about code or consensus—it’s increasingly tied to the geopolitical calculus of the world’s two largest economies. The crypto market, it seems, is now a barometer of global trade health.

Data as of May 7, 2025. Market conditions are subject to change.