Bitcoin Rally Loses Momentum Amid Market Value Realized Value Ratio Slowdown

Bitcoin’s recent rally, which saw the cryptocurrency surge from its April lows below $74,000 to a peak of $112,000, appears to be losing momentum. However, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to reach higher targets in 2025. Several key factors are being closely watched to determine whether Bitcoin can break through to new price levels.

The market value realized value (MVRV) ratio, which measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized capitalization, has shown signs of slowing down. According to CryptoQuant data, the current MVRV slope at 2.22 is significantly below the overvalued zone, historically above 3.7. This suggests that there is still room for growth, and the current slump does not necessarily indicate an imminent downtrend. Instead, it could signal that the market is entering the late stage of the bull cycle. A pickup in MVRV momentum would suggest that investors are holding longer, reducing selling pressure and potentially triggering a breakout past the current $112,000 peak, with some analysts predicting levels above $165,000.

Another critical factor is the onchain transfer volume, which has fallen by approximately 32% to $52 billion over the last weekend from a peak of $76 billion in late May. This cool-down phase is also reflected in the spot trading volume, which sits around $7.7 billion, significantly lower than the cyclical peaks in this bull market. This divergence underscores the lack of speculative intensity and reduced investor engagement. For Bitcoin to break out, there needs to be a revival in demand, activity metrics, and conviction, which would increase the odds of a breakout to new highs in the near term.

Bitcoin’s price has been oscillating between $110,000 and $100,000, where it has found support. The bullish case for Bitcoin hinges on its ability to flip the resistance between $108,000 and $110,000 into support. Analysts predict that a high-volume push above $107,500 is the first technical trigger needed to light the fuse for a real breakout. A break and a four-hour close above $109,000 could lead to new all-time highs. However, it is going to take a big effort to push through the $108,000-$110,000 level, and the next logical move for Bitcoin would be a pullback to take liquidity around the $105,000-$104,000 zone to gain momentum for a move higher.