Bitcoin Rally Loses Momentum, Analysts Eye $165,000 Target

Bitcoin’s recent rally, which saw the cryptocurrency surge from its April lows below $74,000 to a peak of $112,000, appears to be losing momentum. However, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to reach higher targets in 2025. Several key factors are being closely watched to determine whether Bitcoin can break through to new price levels.

The market value realized value (MVRV) ratio, which measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized capitalization, has shown signs of slowing down. According to CryptoQuant data, the current MVRV slope at 2.22 is significantly below the overvalued zone, historically above 3.7. This suggests that there is still room for growth, and the current slump does not necessarily indicate an imminent downtrend. Instead, it could signal that the market is entering the late stage of the bull cycle. A pickup in MVRV momentum would suggest that investors are holding longer, reducing selling pressure and potentially triggering a breakout past the current $112,000 peak, with some analysts predicting levels above $165,000.

Another critical factor is the onchain transfer volume, which has fallen by approximately 32% to $52 billion over the last weekend from a peak of $76 billion in late May. This cool-down phase is also reflected in the spot trading volume, which sits around $7.7 billion, significantly lower than the cyclical peaks in this bull market. This divergence underscores the lack of speculative intensity and reduced investor engagement. An increase in spot volume, reflecting heightened trading activity on exchanges, would indicate stronger investor demand and market conviction, as seen in past rallies where spot volume surges preceded price breakouts.

For Bitcoin to break through to new highs, analysts agree that the price must flip the resistance between $108,000 and $110,000 into support. Popular Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC noted that it would take a significant effort to push through this level, with the next logical move being a pullback to take liquidity around the $105,000-$104,000 zone to gain momentum for a move higher. A break and a four-hour close above $109,000 could pave the way for new all-time highs. Fellow analyst Rekt Capital opined that Bitcoin bulls needed to take out the “final major weekly resistance” above $108,000 to reach new all-time highs. MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe also highlighted $109,000 as a crucial area to break for upward momentum, stating that a breakout is imminent.

In summary, for Bitcoin to break through to $112,000, several key factors must align. The MVRV momentum must pick up, indicating longer holding periods and reduced selling pressure. Spot and onchain transfer volumes must recover, reflecting heightened trading activity and stronger investor demand. Finally, Bitcoin bulls must flip the $108,000-$110,000 resistance into support, paving the way for new all-time highs. While the current cool-down phase may be concerning, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to reach higher targets in the coming months.