Bitcoin Rally Gains Momentum Amid Reduced Selling Pressure, But $100,000 Target Faces Short-Term Holder Resistance

Bitcoin's price nears $88,000 as on-chain data indicates a reduction in selling pressure, reflecting a potential shift in market sentiment. Analysts suggest this could be a sign of consolidation after recent price corrections. However, a push to $100,000 faces resistance from short-term holders who may increase selling activity as price approaches key levels.

Recent on-chain data reveals that Bitcoin's long-term holders are accumulating supply, with the 30-day net change in long-term holder supply showing a positive trend of about 10,700 BTC. This suggests that investors are holding rather than distributing, a common indicator during consolidation phases rather than market tops.

Meanwhile, a Bitcoin whale closed a $270 million short position and reallocated the proceeds into leveraged short bets on BTC, ETH, and SOL. This move reflects a strategic shift in risk positions, with the trader accepting a $50,000 realized loss due to leveraged exposure and price volatility.

Why the Move Happened

The unwinding of short positions by prominent market participants has contributed to the recent rally. A whale known as 'Lightning Hand' liquidated a BTC short at a loss and immediately turned long with a $70.36 million position in Bitcoin. This rapid reversal indicates a bullish stance, suggesting confidence in Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.

Exchange outflows have also been a significant factor. Net outflows from exchanges have continued, reducing the immediate sell-side supply in spot markets. This trend suggests fewer Bitcoin holders are selling, which could ease downward pressure on the price. However, demand remains cautious, likely due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

How Markets Responded

The market response has been mixed, with Bitcoin trading in a narrow range despite improved supply-side dynamics. Prices have not broken key resistance levels, indicating that demand is constrained. Analysts note that without a fresh catalyst, such as a macroeconomic event or policy shift, Bitcoin may continue to consolidate rather than experience a rapid move toward $100,000.

Long-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has remained balanced, hovering near 1.0. This suggests that long-term holders are not selling at a loss, which is a positive sign for market equilibrium. Historically, such behavior aligns with markets finding stability after corrections rather than entering deeper downturns.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin's accumulation patterns and on-chain metrics. The positive shift in long-term holder supply indicates confidence in the asset's long-term value, rather than a market top. However, without renewed buying momentum, this may not translate into a short-term price surge.

Exchange outflows continue to reduce immediate sell pressure, but the lack of price rebound suggests that demand is not yet strong enough to break through the current range. Analysts caution that a move toward $100,000 would likely require a new catalyst, such as macroeconomic news or regulatory developments. In the absence of such triggers, Bitcoin may continue to consolidate into a stronger base for a potential breakout later in 2026.

Market participants are also watching for signs of increased institutional participation, which could provide the necessary demand to break the current stalemate. Until then, Bitcoin remains in a phase of cautious accumulation, with long-term holders showing confidence while short-term traders remain cautious.