Bitcoin's Rally Faces Resistance at $95,370, ETFs See $2.9B Inflow

Bitcoin's recent rally has demonstrated notable durability, according to the crypto analytics firm Glassnode. The firm highlighted on the social media platform X that both "first buyers and momentum buyers" are showing strong engagement, while profit takers are displaying only moderate activity. This dynamic is seen as constructive, as it indicates ongoing demand from new participants and trend followers without significant distribution pressure, thereby supporting the rally's durability.

Glassnode also noted that US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net inflow of 31,323 BTC worth $2.9 billion last week. This inflow represents the fifth-largest weekly BTC inflow on record and the third-largest in terms of dollar value. The firm interpreted this as a sign of renewed institutional engagement with Bitcoin, even at elevated price levels.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $95,370, marking a nearly 1.5% increase in the past 24 hours. In terms of Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest crypto asset by market cap, Glassnode observed that it is experiencing its first meaningful uptick in first buyers since February. However, profit takers are also becoming more active, which provides context for the recent stall in ETH price recovery. ETH is trading at $1,827, up more than 3% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin's price momentum is facing its first wave of meaningful resistance as it attempts to consolidate and break above key technical and on-chain levels. These levels include the 111-Day Moving Average (111DMA) at $91.3k and the Short-Term Holder cost-basis at $93.2k. The price has recently surged above both of these levels, indicating a noteworthy degree of strength behind this upward swing. However, these levels must be broken and held for further price appreciation, as a rejection of this level would push the price back into bearish territory.

Several structural resets are evident across multiple facets of the Bitcoin economy, indicating that much of the speculative excess has been flushed out during the recent downturn. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, which measures the degree of unrealized profit or loss held by the average investor, has fallen back to its long-term mean. This suggests that investor unrealized gains have returned to a more sustainable level, similar to the previous consolidation phase in 2024. The percentage of the circulating supply held in a profitable position remains elevated at 88%, with only those who purchased coins during the Dec-Feb period centered around $95k and $100k being underwater.

The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, which gauges the relative magnitude of profit or loss taken across each spent coin, has also found strong support at its equilibrium value of 1.0 and has remained within a profit-dominated regime. This suggests that the market is experiencing a meaningful recovery, where profit-taking activity returns, and demand has thus far been able to absorb it. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which assesses the degree of equilibrium the market has reached, remains below its low value band. This indicates that most coins moved on-chain are transacting near their original acquisition price, suggesting a degree of equilibrium has been reached and that the current price range is no longer an attractive area for investors to take profit or loss.

Long-Term Holder (LTH) spending volumes remain relatively light, indicating that HODLing is the primary behavior amongst this cohort. The balance held by tenured investors continues to move higher, with +254k BTC migrating across the 155-day threshold since the recent low, many of which were accumulated at prices above $95k. This suggests a degree of confidence has returned, and accumulation pressures are outweighing the propensity for investors to spend and de-risk. Historically speaking, the Long-Term Holder cohort typically ramps up their spending pressure when the average member is holding a +350% unrealized profit margin. Reconciling this information with the spot price, the average LTH is expected to hit a 350% profit margin at the $99.9k level. As such, we can anticipate an uptick in sell-side pressure as the market approaches this zone, making it an area that will likely require substantial buy-side demand to absorb the distribution and sustain upwards momentum.

Additionally, a significant concentration of coins remain held at a loss within this $95k to $98k region. As the market approaches this zone, some investors may opt to exit at or near their break-even price, introducing additional sell-side resistance. This would compound the expected increase in LTH distribution, creating an important resistance level to keep an eye on. The region above $100k has a relatively small volume of coins with a cost basis in that area. If the market can successfully navigate the sell-side pressure within the $95k to $98k corridor, it may enter a region with minimal resistance, paving the way for a run back towards price discovery and a new all-time high.

In summary, following a surge in price over the last two weeks, Bitcoin’s price momentum is encountering its first meaningful wave of resistance. Crucially, price has broken above three critical levels: the Short-Term Holder cost-basis, the 111-Day Moving Average, and the $109K range low from the all-time high formation. These levels represent a critical inflection point that must be upheld. Failure to stabilize above these levels would push the price back into the consolidation range and return many investors to a state of meaningful unrealized loss. Under the surface, a structural reset across many sectors of the Bitcoin economy has taken place, indicating that much of the speculative excess has been flushed out. However, investor profit and loss taking remains light, whilst Long-Term Holders remain largely inactive in the market. This creates a delicate market environment, with latent volatility and a vulnerability to shocks in either direction.