Bitcoin rallies 16% after oil price surges to five-month highs

Bitcoin (BTC) has historically shown a pattern of rallying following significant oil price surges, despite being generally considered a risky investment during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. This pattern presents a compelling opportunity for traders to capitalize on market dislocations.

Historical data indicates that Bitcoin often experiences sharp, temporary corrections in response to oil price spikes. For instance, during the recent rally in oil prices to $77 per barrel, Bitcoin's price declined from $110,200 to $102,800. This inverse relationship aligns with the view of Bitcoin as a risk-on asset rather than a defensive hedge.

However, a broader analysis reveals that episodes of extreme oil price appreciation have coincided with sharp Bitcoin corrections, followed by significant rebounds. In the past year, there have been three such instances. On Jan. 15, 2025, oil surged to $80.50, coinciding with a Bitcoin drop to $89,300, followed by a 22% rally to $109,300 by Jan. 20. Similarly, on Oct. 8, 2024, oil prices jumped to $77.50, leading to a 16% Bitcoin rally over the following eight days. Another instance occurred on Aug. 13, 2024, when oil rose to $80, resulting in a 16% Bitcoin rebound within days.

These historical patterns suggest that the current oil price surge to five-month highs could present another attractive entry point for Bitcoin. According to the analyst's forecast, Bitcoin’s current level near $102,800 could target a 16% gain to $119,200 by June 21, assuming the trend persists. This forecast is based on the historical data showing that Bitcoin has rallied up to 24% within days of an oil price surge.