Bitcoin Put Call Ratio Surges 20% Ahead of $14 Billion Expiry

The Bitcoin put call ratio has surged to 0.72 on Deribit, just days before the settlement of 141,271 contracts worth approximately $14 billion on June 27. This spike has raised concerns about potential volatility in spot prices. Traders often interpret a high Bitcoin put call ratio as a bearish signal, but the details behind this week's increase reveal a more complex scenario that may challenge both bullish and bearish strategies.

Deribit data indicates that nearly one-fifth of the call options expiring on Friday are already in-the-money. However, the Bitcoin put call ratio continues to rise because dealers are writing cash-secured puts to earn yield while expressing a willingness to buy Bitcoin on dips. This means that the increase in the "P" part of the Bitcoin put call ratio is due to strategic accumulation rather than outright panic hedging, which could blunt the usual bearish interpretation.

More than forty percent of total open interest will disappear at this quarterly close, with the largest concentration of activity between $100,000 and $105,000. This band is also the max-pain zone, where the Bitcoin put call ratio suggests the most contracts will expire worthless. This dynamic often pulls spot prices toward this level in the hours before settlement. Historical data echoes this theme, showing that open-interest clusters near the $100,000 line have pinned prices during three of the last four large expiries.

The Bitcoin put call ratio suggests balanced gamma around $102,000, implying choppy but contained swings unless an external catalyst pushes Bitcoin through this range. Even as the headline Bitcoin put call ratio spikes, thirty-day implied volatility on June-dated contracts hovers near 37 percent, well below the 49 percent average seen before March’s halving rally. Reduced implied volatility coupled with a higher Bitcoin put call ratio often indicates that traders are selling premium rather than rushing to pay for protection.

OTC desk Wintermute confirms that the busiest flow this week has been short straddles at $105,000 and short puts at $100,000, trades that lean on time decay rather than directional bets. This explains why the Bitcoin put call ratio can rise even as sentiment stays neutral. Post-expiry scenarios include a "pin" where spot hovers near $102,000, a "pop" where a surprise macro bid lifts Bitcoin past $108,000, and a "drop" where a swift move under $100,000 forces dealers long puts to sell spot, creating a feedback loop.

The Bitcoin put call ratio has reached its highest level of 2025, but the composition of cash-secured income trades, not stressed hedges, means downside follow-through is far from guaranteed. Seasoned traders may watch relative changes in the Bitcoin put call ratio after expiry rather than its absolute level today to gauge real sentiment shifts. A record $14 billion quarterly expiry always warrants respect, and the Bitcoin put call ratio supplies the simplest pulse check. However, context matters: income-seeking structures, muted implied volatility, and a crowded $100,000–$105,000 strike range all argue for a controlled settlement unless an unforeseen catalyst fires. Traders should stay nimble, but blanket bearishness based solely on a rising Bitcoin put call ratio could prove as costly as ignoring it altogether.