Bitcoin's Puell Multiple and the Emerging Buy-the-Dip Opportunity

The Bitcoin market in late 2025 is at a critical inflection point, marked by a confluence of on-chain indicators suggesting undervaluation and the potential for a significant market bottom. Among the most compelling signals is the Puell Multiple, a metric that has historically signaled periods of extreme discounting and eventual price recovery. Combined with corroborating data from the MVRV ratio, realized price trends, and miner selling pressure, the case for a "buy-the-dip" opportunity is gaining statistical and structural credibility.

The Puell Multiple: A Harbinger of Discounted Value

The Puell Multiple, which measures Bitcoin miners' daily revenue relative to a 365-day moving average, has recently fallen into the "discount zone," a level last observed in March 2025 when Bitcoin traded near $75,000. A value below 1 indicates that miners are earning less than their historical average, often forcing them to sell Bitcoin to cover operational costs. However, this metric has historically preceded major market corrections and reversals. For instance, similar readings in 2020 and 2022 coincided with price troughs before subsequent bull runs. Analysts interpret the current Puell Multiple as a sign of reduced risk and increased upside potential, suggesting that the market may be entering a phase where "the worst is behind us" and a new upward trend could emerge.

MVRV Ratio and Realized Price: Confirming Undervaluation

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a key on-chain metric, has dropped to 1.8, one of its lowest levels in recent years. This indicates that Bitcoin's market value is approaching the average realized price of investors' holdings, a condition historically associated with market bottoms. For context, the MVRV ratio has historically signaled bottoms in 2018 and 2022, with levels below 1.7 often preceding recovery phases. Additionally, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has fallen to 62.4%, a 2025 low, reinforcing the idea that many holders are in a loss position and may reduce selling pressure.

The realized price-a measure of the average cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation-currently stands at $56,495.50. This metric is critical because it reflects the price level at which the network's total realized value equals its market value. Bitcoin's current price, trading below the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, suggests weak liquidity and demand. However, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price remains a key support level, currently near $113,000. A sustained move above this threshold could trigger a shift in market sentiment, as it would indicate that even recent buyers are no longer in a loss position.

Miner Selling Pressure: A Mixed Picture

Miner selling pressure in Q3 2025 has shown a mixed trajectory. The Miner's Position Index, which tracks the net flow of Bitcoin from miners to exchanges, recorded a 100-day moving average of -0.12, indicating reduced selling activity compared to historical norms. This suggests that miners may be accumulating Bitcoin rather than liquidating it, a bullish sign. However, on-chain data reveals that OG Bitcoin whales have sold over 1 million BTC since June 2025, contributing to persistent supply pressure. These sales, often in $100 million to $500 million increments, highlight the tension between institutional selling and retail accumulation.

The Case for a Buy-the-Dip Opportunity

The convergence of these indicators paints a compelling case for a buy-the-dip opportunity. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced sharp rebounds after periods of extreme undervaluation, as seen in 2020 and 2024. For example, the MVRV Z-Score has dropped to levels last seen when Bitcoin traded around $35,000, a price that later surged to $60,000 within months. Similarly, the Puell Multiple's current discount zone aligns with prior cycles where Bitcoin's price bottomed and entered a new bull phase.

Moreover, the BTC–Gold ratio has entered an oversold area, resembling patterns observed near past major market lows. While Bitcoin's 200-week moving average remains near $56,000-a level far below current prices-this divergence suggests that the market is in a transitional phase. The weakening correlation between Bitcoin and gold (-0.59) further underscores divergent behavior, often a precursor to periods of market stress followed by recovery.

Risks and Caution

Despite these bullish signals, risks remain. Bitcoin's current $81,000–$89,000 trading range is fragile, with elevated realized losses and weakening liquidity posing challenges. Additionally, the market must navigate potential regulatory headwinds and macroeconomic uncertainties. However, the on-chain data suggests that long-term holders are still realizing profits, albeit with weakening momentum, and that accumulation activity remains robust.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's Puell Multiple, MVRV ratio, realized price, and miner selling pressure collectively point to a market in a state of undervaluation. While no indicator is infallible, the historical patterns and statistical correlations strongly suggest that the current price level could mark a significant bottom in the 2025 cycle. For investors with a medium- to long-term horizon, this environment offers a compelling opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at levels that have historically preceded multi-year bull runs. As the market navigates its next phase, the key will be monitoring whether these on-chain signals continue to align with a structural shift in buyer sentiment.