Bitcoin's Puell Multiple at 0.67: A Strategic Buy-Point for Institutional Investors?

The Bitcoin Puell Multiple, a critical on-chain metric for gauging miner revenue relative to historical norms, currently stands at 0.67 according to data. This figure, hovering near the historically significant threshold of 0.50, has historically signaled cyclical bottoms in Bitcoin's price action. From 2015 to 2025, the Puell Multiple has consistently acted as a leading indicator, with values below 0.50 preceding major market recoveries in 2015, 2018, and 2020 as research shows. As Bitcoin's price struggles to stabilize in late 2025, the question for institutional investors is whether this metric-combined with technical and macroeconomic signals-points to a strategic entry point.

Miner Behavior and the Puell Multiple: A Historical Lens

The Puell Multiple measures daily miner revenue in USD divided by its 365-day moving average according to analysis. When this metric drops below 0.50, it indicates that miners are earning significantly less than historical averages, often forcing them to reduce selling pressure to avoid financial distress. This dynamic creates a unique opportunity for long-term investors, as reduced miner selling typically coincides with increased buying pressure from retail and institutional buyers seeking undervalued Bitcoin as data suggests.

For example, in March 2025, Bitcoin's Puell Multiple fell to 0.67, a level last seen before a significant price rally from $75,000 to over $110,000. Analysts from CryptoQuant and others have noted that such levels historically mark the start of a major correction reversal according to market analysis. While the current Puell Multiple has not yet breached the 0.50 threshold, it is close enough to suggest that Bitcoin is entering a "discount zone," where the asset may be approaching its cyclical trough as indicators show.

Technical Price Levels and Market Sentiment

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price has been trending downward toward key support levels in late 2025. The $80,300 level is considered a critical short-term support, with the RSI and MACD indicators reinforcing bearish sentiment according to technical analysis. However, signs of a potential rebound are emerging: the RSI is approaching oversold territory, and the MACD histogram is flattening, suggesting waning downward momentum.

Additionally, historical models like the Gann Time Cycles and MTOPS highlight a 40-day window from November 23, 2025, to January 1, 2026, during which Bitcoin may face key resistance near $107,000 according to market forecasts. Meanwhile, the MVRV Pricing Bands identify potential support levels at $55,900 and $44,700, which have historically acted as floors during market recoveries as data shows. These technical levels, combined with the Puell Multiple's proximity to 0.50, suggest a high probability of a cyclical bottom forming in early 2026.

Macroeconomic Context: Rates, Inflation, and Institutional Dynamics

The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decisions in late 2025 have added complexity to Bitcoin's price trajectory. While the Fed maintained a hawkish stance, keeping rates at 5.5% for much of the year, a 25-basis-point rate cut in October 2025 injected liquidity into markets. This shift has bolstered Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation, particularly as inflation remains stubbornly at 3.8% year-over-year according to macroeconomic data.

However, institutional adoption has shown signs of disengagement. Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of nearly $900 million on November 20, 2025 according to financial data, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment. This divergence between macroeconomic liquidity and institutional behavior underscores the importance of combining on-chain metrics like the Puell Multiple with broader market analysis.

Strategic Implications for Institutional Investors

For institutional investors, the confluence of a near-0.50 Puell Multiple, weakening technical bearish momentum, and macroeconomic liquidity injections presents a compelling case for strategic entry. Historically, Bitcoin's four-year cycles-driven by halving events and investor psychology-have followed a predictable pattern of absorption, accumulation, and momentum acceleration as market analysis shows. The 2024 halving, which reduced block rewards and reset the Puell Multiple, has positioned Bitcoin for a potential accumulation phase in late 2025 and early 2026 according to on-chain data.

While the current Puell Multiple of 0.67 does not yet confirm a cyclical bottom, it signals that Bitcoin is in a "pre-bottom" phase. Institutional investors with a long-term horizon should consider this as an opportunity to accumulate positions at discounted levels, particularly as technical indicators and macroeconomic factors align with a potential reversal.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's Puell Multiple at 0.67, coupled with weakening technical bearishness and macroeconomic liquidity, suggests that the market is nearing a cyclical inflection point. While the 0.50 threshold has not yet been breached, historical patterns indicate that this level is often reached shortly before major recoveries. For institutional investors, the current environment offers a strategic window to position for a potential 2026 rally, provided they remain disciplined and monitor key support/resistance levels and macroeconomic developments.