Bitcoin's Profitable Supply Surges 11% in Week, Signaling Bullishness and Correction Risk

Bitcoin's price predictions of $200,000 by the end of 2025 are becoming increasingly common, as a surge in profitability not only signals growing bullishness but also risk of a correction in the shorter term. The percentage of Bitcoin's supply in profit rose sharply to 98% from 87% between June 22 and June 29, according to onchain data resource. As of July 1, approximately 96.65% of all Bitcoins are in profit, sitting above the high band.

Historically, such elevated levels lead to market volatility as the potential for profit-taking grows, reflecting bullish sentiment but with caution for price corrections. For instance, between January and April, BTC price fell to $74,000 from around $109,000, a drop preceded by Bitcoin’s profitable supply rising to as high as 98.77% on Jan. 21. Profitability data reflects these bullish albeit cautious market conditions. For instance, Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio jumped to 2.8 from 1.1 since June 22, exceeding the high band threshold of 2.4, a 156.4% rise.

While this “reflects strong market confidence, it hints at heightened risk of profit-taking and demand exhaustion if price momentum falls,” analysts said in their latest Weekly Market Pulse report. “The market looks to have entered a cautiously optimistic regime, with stronger positioning from institutional players and renewed accumulation,” analysts explained, adding: “For this rally to sustain, continued demand and broader market confidence will be essential.”

In November 2022, Bitcoin bounced from the bear market bottom at $15,500, staging an approximately 590% rally to the current price of around $107,000. This price action has formed higher highs and higher lows, forming a channel in the weekly time frame. “Bitcoin is about to break out of a multi-year channel,” an analyst said in a June 30 post. An accompanying chart showed the price seeking to break above the upper trendline, with the short-term target at $140,000 and the end-of-year target at $200,000. “The next leg will be explosive.”

This aligns with the analyst’s earlier predictions that Bitcoin’s breakout of the monthly Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT) bands also targets $200,000 in 2025, with a possible “extension” to $250,000 next year. Another analyst said Bitcoin’s breakout above the same upper trendline as the previous analyst’s “could trigger a massive bull run.” The short-term target is the 2.618 Fibonacci level at $155,000. The Bitcoin price prediction of $200,000, in particular, is becoming an increasingly popular target for the second half of 2025. For example, a co-founder predicts BTC may hit $130,000 to $200,000 by Q4 2025 based on a power law model. A falling US Dollar Index fueled by trade policies could push BTC to $200,000. Research believes Bitcoin has the potential to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, backed by increased institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs and BTC treasury companies.