Bitcoin Prices Stagnant as Retail Demand Falls 895,000 BTC Post-Halving

Bitcoin retail demand has significantly declined following the 2024 halving event, despite increased institutional interest, leading to stagnant prices. The halving, which occurred in April 2024, reduced the daily issuance of new bitcoins from 900 to 450, intensifying Bitcoin's scarcity concerns. However, the market dynamics have not played out as anticipated, with retail investors showing a marked decrease in interest. This shift is evident in various market indicators, including a collapse in daily Bitcoin deposits on major platforms.

The decline in retail demand is a critical factor in the current market dynamics. Historically, halving events have been followed by periods of price appreciation as the reduced supply meets steady or increasing demand. However, the post-2024 halving period has seen a different trend. The annual inflation rate of Bitcoin fell below 0.83% after the halving, indicating a robust technical infrastructure with 99.98% uptime and a hashrate of 900 EH/s in 2025. Despite these technical strengths, the market sentiment has not translated into increased retail participation.

The regulatory environment also plays a significant role in shaping market dynamics. Bitcoin's inherent defiance of inflationary pressures has historically been a strong selling point. However, the regulatory landscape remains uncertain, and this uncertainty can deter retail investors who are risk-averse. The halving events, such as the one in March 2024, have historically acted as catalysts for price appreciation. Yet, the current market conditions suggest that regulatory clarity and investor confidence are crucial for sustaining retail demand.

The decline in retail demand is also reflected in the behavior of miners. Since the halving, miners have been creating just 450 new coins per day, down from 900 before the halving. This reduction in supply was expected to drive up the price, but the market has not responded as anticipated. The current market conditions suggest that the post-halving gains are diminishing, and reaching new all-time highs may require additional catalysts beyond the halving event itself.

The market is currently in a growth phase, 13 months post-April 2024 halving, and is likely approaching the peak by October 2025. However, the decline in retail demand indicates that the market may not reach its full potential without a significant shift in investor sentiment. The current market conditions suggest that the post-halving gains are diminishing, and reaching new all-time highs may require additional catalysts beyond the halving event itself. The decline in retail demand is a clear indication that the market is not yet ready for a sustained bull run.

Despite a surge in institutional participation, the decline in retail and "invisible" demand prevents significant price movements. Institutional entities accounted for approximately one-third of demand during the peak. The diminished retail demand post-halving led to an overall market demand drop of approximately 895,000 BTC. Despite increased institutional involvement, prices remain stagnant. The financial implications suggest that institutional purchases are unable to offset the retail demand contraction, highlighting a critical shift in market dynamics.

Experts predict potential stabilization if retail demand recovers in future cycles, with historical precedents indicating lagged price increases post-halving events. The 2024 scenario is unique, highlighting reduced demand due to simultaneous institutional participation and retail decline. CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics provider, stated that since December 2024, this invisible demand has collapsed. CryptoQuant's data shows that overall demand has fallen by approximately 895,000 BTC over a one-month period in mid-2025. This decline is roughly equivalent to the combined institutional buying during the same period, effectively canceling out any bullish pressure from large buyers.