Bitcoin's Price Volatility Surges 3% as New Oscillator Predicts Growth

Bitcoin's price action over the past 24 hours has been characterized by significant volatility, briefly surging above the $106,000 mark before returning to consolidate around the $103,000 level. This volatility suggests that Bitcoin's price still has considerable room to grow before reaching its peak. Amid this volatile movement, a new macroeconomic model, the Decode Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO), has been introduced to predict when Bitcoin's price might top this cycle.

The Decode Macro Trend Oscillator is a sophisticated tool developed by a Bitcoin analyst known as Decode on the social media platform X. The oscillator aggregates around 40 macroeconomic indicators, including interest rates, global liquidity, industrial production, and market volatility, into 17 carefully selected leading metrics. These metrics are then normalized and visualized as a histogram to produce a cyclical pattern that has historically aligned with Bitcoin’s major tops. A close examination of the chart titled Bitcoin Liquid Index on the 1M candlestick timeframe reveals that the light green histogram bars have coincided with each of Bitcoin’s cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. These peaks are marked by vertical red lines, and the transitions from deep red to green territory on the oscillator appear to offer a visual cue for the end of bearish phases and the onset of price rallies. As of May 2025, the histogram remains in a deep red zone but has begun inching upward, with the most recent bar reading at -11.47, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions may soon start to favor a bigger rally for Bitcoin.

Decode’s analysis extends beyond Bitcoin-specific indicators. In one of the accompanying charts of the S&P 500 Index on the 2M timeframe, a long-term comparison is made between the current global environment and the economic backdrop of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Decode’s macro trend oscillator proved reliable in estimating periods of downturns and expansions in both instances. In both cases, inflation pressure and declining consumer sentiment pushed the oscillator deep into negative territory for years. However, once the histogram flipped into the green, the economy and prices entered a prolonged phase of expansion.

The third chart offers a more detailed view of Bitcoin’s weekly trend, including an overlay of M2 money supply growth, which is another popular monetary metric. This view highlights how the Macro Trend Oscillator, when switched to a configuration Decode called “Bitcoin Mode,” fine-tunes its sensitivity to metrics that directly impact crypto markets. In this configuration, only a few of the full 17 metrics that best identify Bitcoin cycle tops are used. As it stands, Bitcoin is still in the negative red histogram zone, even despite its rally in recent months. The first deep green histogram has yet to show up, not to mention the first light green bar that will mark the cycle peak. Based on this setup, the oscillator implies that Bitcoin still has a lot of room to run this cycle, and that a price top is unlikely to arrive in 2025.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,300. The Decode Macro Trend Oscillator provides a valuable tool for predicting Bitcoin’s price movements, suggesting that the cryptocurrency still has significant potential for growth before reaching its peak. The oscillator’s historical alignment with Bitcoin’s major tops and its ability to fine-tune its sensitivity to crypto-specific metrics make it a reliable indicator for investors and analysts alike.