Bitcoin's Price Surges 46.32% in April and May, Boosting CAGR to 31%

Bitcoin's price surge in April and May has sparked renewed optimism for a significant bullish breakout. From April 9 to May 22, the price of Bitcoin increased by 46.32%, with an 18.48% rally between May 5 and 22. This price recovery has also boosted its Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), indicating a renewed sense of optimism in the market.

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr recently noted a significant increase in Bitcoin's 4-year CAGR. In April 2025, it had dropped to just 7%, reflecting Bitcoin’s volatile start to the year. In January, BTC grew by 9.54%, but the following months saw sharp declines—down 17.5% in February and 2.19% in March. The price even touched a low of $74,446.79 in April.

However, the market rebounded strongly. By June 2025, Adler reports that Bitcoin's CAGR climbed back to 31%. “This sharp rebound shows how quickly the long-term trend can shift when strong buyer momentum enters the market,” Adler stated. Yet, he notes that 31% CAGR is still below historical bull market peaks, implying more room for growth.

Axel Adler Jr forecasts a possible Bitcoin price target of $168,000 by October 2025, assuming momentum in the futures market and leverage continues. He bases this projection on accelerating growth and historical patterns observed during prior bull runs.

In the discussion thread, X user Manu suggested a more refined way to interpret CAGR—by dividing it by the standard deviation to eliminate volatility and highlight risk-adjusted returns. Adler agreed with the approach, stating it offers a cleaner view of market performance, but also emphasized another critical point: “The real inflection point comes when investors start taking profits based on expected returns.”

According to Adler, the risk of a bear market grows once BTC trading volume crosses 1 million coins, as large-scale profit-taking can disrupt supply-demand balance. This analysis underscores the importance of monitoring market sentiment and investor behavior as Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory.