Bitcoin Price Could Surge 300% by October 2025, Analyst Predicts

Crypto analyst Fred Krueger has outlined a dramatic scenario in which Bitcoin’s price is projected to surge from approximately $150,000 to $600,000 between July 21 and October 19, 2025. This forecast, dubbed “The Last Rally,” is a five-stage plan that envisions a series of major financial shocks driving a parabolic Bitcoin rally.

In Phase I, a $200 billion U.S. Treasury auction fails, prompting the Federal Reserve to signal “extraordinary measures.” This environment sees Bitcoin briefly jump from $158,000 to $165,000, while gold hits $4,200. Simultaneously, BRICS countries establish an independent payment network using gold and Bitcoin.

Phase II involves a major U.S. pension fund defaulting on its obligations. The Fed imposes yield curve control, capping 10-year yields at 6.5%, and the dollar weakens sharply. Under these conditions, Krueger projects Bitcoin at $215,000, oil around $122, and gold about $5,800. Germany pledges to back the euro with new gold reserves.

Phase III sees U.S. home prices plummet by 35% and 10-year Treasury yields spike above 8.5%. Bitcoin surges to about $390,000 in this turmoil while gold reaches $8,900. Each of these phases is meant to stoke a flight to alternative assets, with Bitcoin and gold initially rising on the chaos, and by Phase III, soaring yields and housing losses further eroding confidence in fiat currencies.

In Phase IV, major tech giants such as Apple, Tesla, and Google “convert their balance sheets to Bitcoin.” Apple alone accumulates 200,000 BTC. Latin American governments also turn to crypto. The IMF announces a new global reserve basket consisting of 50% Bitcoin, 30% gold, 10% yuan, and 10% other currencies. The Bank of England issues Bitcoin-backed bonds, and by this point, Bitcoin exceeds $525,000.

Phase V brings a “New Bretton Woods” summit in Geneva, where the U.S. dollar is restructured to gain 25% Bitcoin and 25% gold collateral. The Fed launches a digital dollar (CBDC), expanding its balance sheet to $44 trillion. In this finale, Bitcoin reaches $600,000, gold $10,400, and oil $180 per barrel. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) drops to the high 60s.

Krueger’s scenario is highly controversial and depends on a chain of severe crises that have not occurred. The “$600K prediction” is still viewed as speculative and even “controversial.” Nonetheless, it has sparked discussion online about what market or policy events could set off the proposed rally.

For context, Bitcoin’s price has indeed been rallying in mid-2025. After briefly dipping to just above $100,000 in mid-May, BTC quickly rebounded above $103,000. By May 21, it traded around $107–108K, a 14% gain since the start of May. In this rally, the total crypto market capitalization climbed past $3.36 trillion. Despite these gains, Bitcoin remains below its January 2025 all-time high of $109,000. Traders note that the uptrend has formed a bullish flag pattern, with key resistance in the $112k—$120k range.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is $108,352, having climbed 3% over the last 24 hours. The market is also digesting macro factors that could fuel or cap the rally. In short, Bitcoin’s current momentum is strong, but many analysts view further moves as contingent on traditional-market dynamics.