Bitcoin Price May Surge 150% by 2025 End as M2 Supply Hits $112 Trillion

Bitcoin's price movement has been closely tied to the growth of the M2 money supply, with a 12-week delay. As of mid-2025, the M2 supply has surged past $112 trillion, indicating a significant increase in global liquidity. This trend has historically correlated with asset price increases, particularly in risk-on markets like cryptocurrency. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe has noted that Bitcoin's volatility is currently at historic lows, which often precedes large price movements. According to his analysis, Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in the third quarter of 2025 and potentially hit $250,000 by the fourth quarter if current conditions persist.

The relationship between Bitcoin and the M2 money supply has been consistent since early 2023. The M2 supply, which represents global liquid assets, has been on a steady climb, jumping from $100 trillion in early 2023 to over $112 trillion by mid-2025. This increase reflects monetary expansion efforts across major economies in response to geopolitical risks and inflation concerns. The synchronized pattern between Bitcoin's price and the M2 supply suggests that liquidity-driven market dynamics are at play.

Van de Poppe's analysis indicates that the rising M2 level increases the likelihood of rate cuts and macroeconomic shifts, which could drive capital back into crypto assets. The combination of low volatility and expanding liquidity creates a favorable environment for a multi-month advance in Bitcoin's price. Market observers interpret the current low volatility as a "calm before the storm," where momentum builds ahead of large directional moves. This setup suggests that market energy is accumulating, positioning traders for a potential breakout aligned with M2 projections.

Additionally, capital flow may pivot back toward high-beta crypto sectors, including altcoins, which Van de Poppe expects to outperform significantly. The question remains whether Bitcoin will hit the forecasted $250,000 mark as global liquidity drives asset repricing, or if macro risks will stall the rally. Van de Poppe's projections assume that monetary policy easing will accelerate and that M2 momentum will continue, pointing to a highly bullish environment for Bitcoin through late 2025.