Bitcoin's Price Stagnation Drives Bearish Sentiment in Long-Term Options Market

Bitcoin's stagnant price, hovering above $100,000 for over 50 days, has eroded bullish sentiment in the long-term options market. This lack of movement has led to a nearly zero risk reversal for Deribit-listed options expiring in June 2026, indicating that calls and puts are trading at similar levels. Historically, long-term risk reversals have been positive, favoring calls. Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, noted that continued institutional selling of calls and buying of protective puts could push the risk reversal negative in the long term.

Despite consistent purchases by companies like Strategy, the overall decline in spot demand for BTC has not been offset. Blockchain analysis shows that long-term holding wallets are taking profits, further contributing to the bearish sentiment. Some traders are focusing on the upcoming U.S. consumer price data, which could influence market sentiment. Additionally, the cultural relevance of crypto is growing, with celebrities like rapper Drake and entrepreneur Elon Musk mentioning bitcoin in their recent activities, which could filter through to investor confidence over time.

In other developments, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and researcher Toni Wahrstätter proposed EIP-7983 to set a new gas limit for transactions on the blockchain. This proposal aims to enhance the blockchain's resilience to certain denial-of-service (DoS) attacks, improve stability, and offer predictable transaction costs. Meanwhile, Russia introduced a national registry for cryptocurrency mining equipment to standardize the use of Bitcoin and Ethereum mining equipment and enhance compliance with regulations.