Bitcoin Price Stabilizes Near All-Time Highs With Key Supply Cluster

Bitcoin’s price is currently stabilizing near its all-time highs, with a significant supply cluster forming between $95.5k and $97k. This cluster is just below the short-term holder cost basis at $98k, making it a critical threshold for determining whether the bull run will continue or if a bearish phase will emerge. The concentration of supply in this range indicates strong investor conviction, suggesting that many holders are anchoring their positions here. If the price remains above this level, it could reinforce bullish momentum.

The Bitcoin UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) heatmap shows how supply has shifted since July 2023. From $30k to $110k, distinct accumulation bands reveal strategic buying during rallies. This pattern underscores a robust market structure with committed long-term holders. From Q4 2023 to Q1 2024, Bitcoin surged from $30k to $70k, with heavy accumulation between $40k and $66k. These zones became dominant cost bases for investors entering during the breakout. Such shifts are prompting firms to recalibrate strategies around these levels.

Bitcoin formed a large supply cluster between $76k and $88k after breaking beyond $80k in late 2024. The heatmap shows thick yellow bands, reflecting active wallet repositioning. This accumulation indicates investors anticipated further upside. Over 800,000 BTC were held above $100k by Q1 2025, when the price of Bitcoin reached $110,000. It appears that holders are confident in higher prices because there was little selling pressure during the mid-2025 surge. These upper-band clusters could act as support in future corrections.

The URPD chart's stair-step pattern attests to a robust bull market. Each rally phase, from $40k to $100k, shows clear supply clusters, indicating sustained demand. This structure creates strong psychological and technical levels for traders. Recent movements in the sector have reshaped priorities, with investors focusing on these dense supply zones. The high concentration above $100k is notable, as previous cycle tops lacked such robust upper-band supply. This shift suggests a new level of market maturity.

As of June 2025, Bitcoin’s on-chain footprint shows deep-rooted investor positions. The $95.5k to 97k cluster remains a critical threshold. Holding above it favors bulls, while a break below could signal a bearish turn. The fact that the large supply cluster sits just below the STH cost basis creates a layered support structure. It suggests that not only is there a historical concentration of supply in that lower zone, but the current average purchase price of recent buyers is also just above it, creating a potentially robust area of interest for market participants.

Based on the on-chain analysis, there are clear potential scenarios based on how the Bitcoin price interacts with these identified levels. If Bitcoin manages to consistently trade and close above the upper bound of the supply cluster ($97,000) and especially above the STH cost basis ($98,000), it would signal strong buying pressure and conviction among holders. This scenario supports the continuation of the current bullish momentum, potentially paving the way for further price appreciation. Holding above $98,000 would mean the average short-term holder is back in profit, reducing the immediate pressure to sell at a loss and potentially encouraging renewed buying. This is a key indicator for the health of the current uptrend in the crypto market.

Conversely, a decisive drop below the lower bound of the significant supply cluster ($95,500) would be a bearish signal. Breaking below this level suggests that the historical support from the concentrated supply is failing. It could indicate that holders who acquired coins in this range are now selling, potentially triggering a cascade effect. Furthermore, if the price drops significantly below the STH cost basis ($98,000), a large portion of short-term holders would be underwater, increasing the risk of capitulation or forced selling, which could accelerate a downward price movement.

On-chain analysis offers a unique perspective on potential support and resistance levels by tracking the movement of coins and identifying accumulation or distribution trends. This analysis complements traditional technical analysis and provides a more fundamental view of market structure. However, it is important to remember that even strong on-chain support levels are not guaranteed floors. Market sentiment, macroeconomic factors, regulatory news, and large institutional moves can all impact the Bitcoin price and potentially override on-chain signals. Volatility is inherent in the crypto market.

For traders and investors, monitoring the $95.5K – $97K zone and the $98K level is crucial. A move and sustained hold above $98,000 would be a strong indication of renewed bullish momentum, as it puts the average short-term holder back into profit. Conversely, a clear break and close below $95,500 should be viewed as a significant bearish signal, potentially indicating further downside is likely. Combining these on-chain insights with technical analysis and fundamental analysis can provide a more comprehensive view of the crypto market.