Bitcoin's Price Stability Above $100,000 Faces Challenges Amid Weakening Volume Momentum

Bitcoin’s recent price stability above $100,000 has been accompanied by several underlying weaknesses that could challenge its ability to maintain this level. Since early June, the exchange volume momentum for Bitcoin has declined, with the 30-day average dropping to $5.9 billion, just 7% above the yearly average of $5.5 billion. This narrowing premium signals reduced trader activity and shrinking speculative interest, despite Bitcoin’s price stabilizing above $100,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $108,259 after shedding 0.67% in 24 hours. Therefore, while prices remain firm, weakening volume momentum reflects growing caution among investors.

This divergence between price and volume often precedes periods of lower volatility or correction, especially when traders hesitate to deploy new capital despite sustained price levels. The risk of sharp price swings in either direction is increasing, as the market depth thins and large holders move assets into self-custody rather than preparing to sell. Historically, persistent outflows suggest accumulation or defensive posturing. However, there are no strong inflows to offset the recent outflows, indicating a fragile trading environment.

Bitcoin’s Network Value to Metcalfe (NVM) Ratio surged 14.14% to 2.76, signaling potential overvaluation based on network usage. This metric, which compares market capitalization to user activity via Metcalfe’s Law, suggests that BTC’s price might be outpacing on-chain fundamentals. When NVM values rise while exchange momentum and activity slow, it typically indicates speculative premium buildup. Therefore, this spike in NVM Ratio under weak market activity raises red flags. Although bulls continue to defend the $100K level, on-chain valuation signals suggest growing inefficiency and potential price vulnerability.

Santiment data revealed a deepening divergence between BTC’s price and its Daily Active Addresses (DAA), with the divergence score sinking to -175.79%. While the price has climbed steadily to $108K, active user growth has failed to keep pace. This long-lasting negative divergence points to weakening organic engagement, even as Bitcoin trends higher. Moreover, network throughput is failing to confirm the rally, hinting that the current bullish structure may lack sustainable support. If user participation continues to lag, it could limit upside momentum or trigger sharp corrections when sentiment shifts.

Bitcoin continues to trade above $100k, but mounting on-chain weaknesses are casting doubt on the sustainability of its rally. Exchange momentum has slowed, suggesting reduced trading activity, while whale participation remains subdued, indicating a lack of strong accumulation from large holders. At the same time, valuation metrics are flashing overbought signals, raising the risk of a potential correction. Another concern is that user engagement has not kept pace with the rising price, hinting at an underlying structural weakness in the market. Unless these core metrics show meaningful improvement, Bitcoin may struggle to hold its current levels. Looking ahead, a renewed surge in network activity and broader investor participation will be essential to support the bullish narrative and drive further upside.