Bitcoin Price Slightly Above Annual Average, 30% Annual Gain

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler has provided important data on the current market position of Bitcoin. Based on the metric “Bitcoin Distribution by Realized Supply,” Adler assessed how expensive or cheap Bitcoin’s current price level is relative to the average cost of investors. According to Adler, “Realized Supply” represents the total dollar value of Bitcoins on the network, calculated based on the most recent price movement. The ratio between this metric and the Bitcoin price allows comparison of today’s price with the average cost paid by investors. This value, defined as “Ratio = Bitcoin Price / Realized Supply,” is similar to the price/earnings (P/E) ratio in stock markets. “The higher the ratio, the more expensive Bitcoin is; the lower it is, the cheaper it can be considered,” Adler said.

Adler noted that the Bitcoin price is currently slightly above the annual average based on this ratio. This shows that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, i.e. in a neutral position. Adler recalled that a similar ratio was observed before the rise in November 2024, when Bitcoin rose from $ 74,000 to $ 107,000. Adler, who touched upon another important indicator in his analysis, the “365-Day Bitcoin Price Change” metric, stated that this rate is currently around 30%. In other words, Adler stated that Bitcoin is currently increasing in value by around 30% on an annual basis, and that if a classic macro cycle is followed, this increase could reach levels of 60-70%, at which point investors will decide whether to make a profit or not. “Once this threshold level is reached, investors will either choose to take profits or wait for the rise to continue,” Adler said, adding that a similar structure has continued since September 2023.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been a subject of intense debate among analysts regarding its current valuation. According to Adler, the Bitcoin price is slightly above the annual average based on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. This suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, indicating a balanced state. Crypto analyst Ali has highlighted a key technical signal that could mark the beginning of Bitcoin's next significant move. Ali noted that the MVRV ratio is nearing a golden cross with its 30-day simple moving average (SMA). A golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term one, often signaling potential bullish momentum. This technical indicator measures whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued based on the average price at which coins were acquired. If the golden cross confirms, it may indicate that BTC holders are entering profitable territory, setting the stage for further upside if buying pressure increases.

However, it is important to note that no indicator is foolproof. Traders and investors should monitor the situation closely in the coming days to see if the golden cross materializes and if Bitcoin breaks out of its current range. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating within the $100,000-$110,000 range. Despite the price rebounding to this level, there are signs of declining profitability and slow on-chain activity, which are typical during choppy consolidation periods. Until profitability and activity metrics improve, the likelihood of a breakout to new all-time highs remains low. The market appears to be digesting previous gains while awaiting new momentum and demand. The journey of Bitcoin is marked by extreme price volatility, with market sentiment and speculation playing crucial roles in driving its price movements. While the sector is still in its early stages, if it gains traction, BTC tokens may be undervalued at current record market prices near historical highs. Top crypto analysts have reported that stablecoin metrics indicate that Bitcoin's cycle still has upside potential, with no signs of trend exhaustion yet.

In summary, while there are mixed signals regarding Bitcoin's current valuation, the technical indicators and market sentiment suggest that the cryptocurrency is neither overpriced nor undervalued. The upcoming days will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can break out of its current range and continue its upward trajectory.