Bitcoin's Price Rollercoaster: Retail Buying, Institutional Selling, and a Major Liquidity Test

Bitcoin's price action has been uncertain in recent weeks, with the asset dropping 12.42% over the past month and struggling to maintain a bullish stance. Despite this, notable buying activity has been observed from retail investors and whales, suggesting a potential major price rally. However, low liquidity levels threaten this rally.

U.S. retail and institutional investors have shown a notable decline in interest over the past 24 hours, according to data. The Coinbase Premium Index (CPI), which tracks U.S. retail investor activity on Coinbase relative to other exchanges, shows that selling pressure has intensified as the CPI dropped below zero. This shift follows bullish sentiment on the 17th of February, when the crypto market saw a strong price surge. However, ETF activity suggests a more bearish outlook. In February, spot BTC ETFs saw an inflow of $70.60 million, suggesting buying activity. However, on the 18th, a major outflow of $129.10 million was recorded, meaning more BTC was withdrawn from these institutions. This was a continuation of the market outflows that occurred from the 10th to the 13th of February, as institutional investors continued selling their BTC holdings.

Despite recent sell pressure, some bullish sentiment remains. According to CryptoQuant, an address linked to over-the-counter (OTC) trades for long-term holding has accumulated a significant amount of BTC. At the time of analysis, over 28,000 BTC—worth more than $2.6 billion—had been purchased by these addresses. This could lead to a supply squeeze, reducing circulating BTC. A closer look at the spot market reflects similar buying trends. In the past week alone, $314.70 million more BTC was bought than sold. Asset netflow data shows consistent BTC accumulation since January 2025, further supporting a bullish outlook.

According to Binance’s liquidation heatmap on the monthly timeframe, a major liquidity level is positioned at $92,930.28, where $136.1 million worth of BTC buy orders have been placed. Typically, liquidation levels act as magnets that pull the price toward them. If this holds for BTC, it may drop to this level before quickly rebounding. For now