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Bitcoin's (BTC) price has demonstrated notable resilience in the face of President Donald Trump's trade war, defying initial expectations that it would be significantly impacted by the tariffs. Following Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement on April 2, Bitcoin experienced a sharp sell-off, with its price dropping from $84,598 to a low of $75,004 by April 9. This decline led many to question Bitcoin's status as a safe haven asset, suggesting that it was more closely aligned with other risk assets like stocks.
However, the narrative began to shift over the Easter weekend. Bitcoin diverged from the stock market, rallying to $88,927, effectively erasing the losses incurred during the sell-off. This move not only reset Bitcoin's price but also provided it with renewed momentum, potentially setting the stage for a recovery above $90,000 and even a breach of the psychologically significant $100,000 level.
Despite this positive development, it is important to note that Bitcoin has not yet fully recovered from the trade war's impact. As of the latest rally, Bitcoin remains more than $13,000 below the $102,345 it held on the eve of the trade war. This indicates that while Bitcoin has shown resilience, it is still feeling the effects of the tariff battle initiated by Trump in February, which coincided with a broader market downturn.
The trade war, which began with Trump's announcement of duties on Canada, Mexico, and China, has had a profound impact on both the stock and cryptocurrency markets. At the start of February, Bitcoin was trading at $102,345, and despite the recent upswing, it remains 13.11% down since the trade war began. This highlights the ongoing challenges faced by Bitcoin and other assets in the current economic climate.
The decoupling of Bitcoin from traditional risk assets, such as stocks, is a significant development. Initially, Bitcoin was highly vulnerable to the tariff-fueled volatility in the stock market. However, over the past week, it has begun to decouple from these risk assets, suggesting that it may be regaining its status as a safe haven. This decoupling is particularly noteworthy given the ongoing trade tensions and the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the tariff battle.
The recent rally in Bitcoin's price can be attributed to several factors. One key factor is the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced by Trump, which has provided some relief to the market. However, market sentiment remains skeptical about the likelihood of a sweeping accord being reached within the remaining 79 days of the pause. This uncertainty has contributed to the volatility in Bitcoin's price, as investors weigh the potential outcomes of the trade war.
In conclusion, while Trump's tariffs initially spooked Bitcoin investors and led to a significant sell-off, the digital currency has since shown remarkable resilience. Its recent rally and decoupling from traditional risk assets suggest that it may be regaining its status as a safe haven. However, the ongoing trade war and the uncertainty surrounding its outcome continue to pose challenges for Bitcoin and other assets. As the situation evolves, it will be important to monitor Bitcoin's price movements and assess its ability to withstand the ongoing economic turmoil.

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