Bitcoin's Price Could Reach $330,000, Says Analyst

Bitcoin's price trajectory has been a subject of intense debate, with some analysts suggesting that the cryptocurrency could reach as high as $330,000. This projection is based on a technical analysis supported by the AVIV ratio, a behavioral indicator that compares actual market activity to invested value. According to market technician Gert van Lagen, this ratio has historically preceded major cycle tops, and its current level suggests that Bitcoin's bull run may not be over yet.

Van Lagen points out that the AVIV Ratio has not yet crossed its critical threshold of +3 standard deviations above its historical average, a level that has marked previous cycle peaks. He notes that in 2013, Bitcoin was worth $1,200, nearly $20,000 in 2017, and about $69,000 in 2021, all of which coincided with the AVIV Ratio crossing this threshold. Given that the ratio has not yet reached this level, Van Lagen estimates that Bitcoin's price could climb to at least $330,000 before the current cycle peaks.

In addition to the AVIV ratio, another phenomenon attracting analysts' attention is the decline in Bitcoin balances on OTC desks. According to CryptoQuant data, these balances have dropped significantly this year, interpreted as a strategic accumulation move by institutional investors. This decline is largely due to aggressive buying by strategies and the entry of major players like Metaplanet, which acquired 10,000 BTC. Furthermore, strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and BlackRock's substantial BTC holdings indicate a growing institutional interest in Bitcoin.

Complementing these observations, a predictive model developed by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With strengthens the hypothesis of a high cycle peak. Based on a 365-day simple moving average integrated into a power law model, this analysis projects a price between $220,000 and $330,000 for this cycle. The model, supported by a high coefficient of determination (R²=0.96), suggests that Bitcoin's price cycles continue to show significant deviations from the trend, challenging the idea of a progressively stabilizing market.

While these signals are optimistic, they must be approached with caution. Neither the decline in OTC balances nor the statistical models can guarantee a linear upward trajectory. However, they outline a dynamic market potentially far from its peak, especially in a context of sustained institutional accumulation. The combination of indicators still far from saturation and a change in behavior among major investors could, if sustained, pave the way to price levels never seen before. The market remains volatile, models remain imperfect, but signals converge: the final phase of this bull run could be more spectacular.