Bitcoin's Price May Rally to $160,000 by Year-End, Says Analyst

Bitcoin is currently trading around the $103,000 mark, with a noticeable slowdown in its upward momentum over the past week. Despite this short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. Analysts are turning to long-term cycle indicators to gauge the direction of the market, with one notable tool being the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This model, which accurately predicted Bitcoin’s price top in 2021, has resurfaced with a new prediction for the current cycle.

Crypto analyst CryptoCon highlighted the reliability of the Golden Ratio Multiplier in predicting Bitcoin’s price tops in each cycle. This logarithmic model uses Fibonacci-derived multipliers to anticipate Bitcoin’s macro trends. The model has historically called the price tops in 2017, 2013, and 2021 accurately. For the current cycle, the model has flagged a significant peak in March 2024, which CryptoCon interprets as a mid-top rather than the final high. He explained that Bitcoin’s price action has already hit Level 4 of the multiplier chart this cycle, but this isn’t the final peak. “We’ve already hit our cycle top level this cycle once, but this was for the cycle mid-top in March 2024, which means we’re bound to do it again,” he wrote.

The Level 5 band now sits around $160,000 and continues to trend upward. Drawing a parallel to past cycles, CryptoCon noted that the structure of the current cycle shows strong similarities to the 2015 to 2017 period, when Bitcoin saw a gradual build-up followed by an explosive breakout. Based on this comparison, the current market phase is seen as equivalent to April 2017, right before Bitcoin went on a rally in the months that followed.

The chart accompanying CryptoCon’s post paints a familiar picture with the Golden Multiplier Ratio. Each band, ranging from Level 1 to Level 10, is based on a multiplier level derived from the 350-day moving average. Bitcoin has topped at various levels: Level 10 in 2011, Level 9 and 8 in 2013, Level 7 in 2017, and Level 6 in 2021. The current cycle’s peak should most likely be Level 5, but the Bitcoin price is yet to get there. Should the market continue to respect this structure, Bitcoin could be preparing for a rally toward the Level 5 mark of $160,000 sometime later in the year, which could mark the final high of this cycle. The current range around $103,000 may well be the calm before the final breakout. “Slower buildup, then all at once,” the analyst said.