Bitcoin's Price Perch: A Balancing Act Between Bulls and Profits

Bitcoin’s price has stalled near $115,000, with market participants closely watching key resistance and support levels as the asset prepares for a potential breakout or pullback. The consolidation phase follows a volatile period of gains and losses, with the broader cryptocurrency market showing signs of mixed sentiment. As the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision looms on Sept. 17, traders are evaluating whether Bitcoin can sustain its current price range or if it will succumb to ongoing distribution pressure from long-term holders and institutional investors.

The cryptocurrency’s 24-hour price action remained relatively flat, hovering between $114,608 and $116,997. Blockchain analytics highlight increased selling activity from both OG wallets and retail investors, with a notable example being the unloading of over 1,100 BTC from a dormant wallet worth more than $136 million. This activity has raised concerns among traders, particularly as Bitcoin struggles to hold above the $116,000 psychological level. Glassnode data also indicates widespread distribution, with wallets of all sizes reducing their BTC holdings, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics.

Technical indicators and on-chain metrics provide further insight into Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. The cryptocurrency has confirmed a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe, a pattern historically associated with continued price appreciation. This divergence is evident on the price chart, where higher lows are accompanied by lower lows on the RSI, indicating underlying strength despite short-term selling pressure. Analysts like BitBull and Merlijn have highlighted the significance of this pattern, noting its historical reliability since 2023. Key support levels between $113,000 and $114,000 show strong buying interest, as reflected in Coinglass’ 24-hour liquidation heatmap.

Resistance at $116,000 remains a critical threshold for Bitcoin’s price direction. The level has repeatedly repelled bullish attempts, with sharp rejections coinciding with dense liquidation zones. If bulls can absorb ongoing selling pressure and push the price above $116,000, the next potential targets would be $117,000 and $118,500. However, failure to breach these levels could lead to a retest of key support zones. The $115,500 level is currently acting as a temporary floor, with a breakdown below $115,000 increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction toward $113,000 or even $112,500.

The broader macroeconomic environment remains a pivotal factor. Despite rising expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed—now priced in at 96%—Bitcoin has shown little correlation with traditional risk assets. While U.S. equities and gold have benefited from the dovish outlook, Bitcoin has remained relatively detached, a divergence attributed to persistent selling from older wallets. This disconnection is not uncommon before major FOMC announcements, as traders de-risk positions and await central bank guidance. Analysts like Daan Crypto Trades have noted the likelihood of continued consolidation until the policy meeting passes.

Looking ahead, the cryptocurrency’s ability to maintain its support levels will be crucial in determining its trajectory. If Bitcoin can defend the $113,000–$114,000 range amid ongoing distribution and macro uncertainty, the case for a bullish continuation into late September remains intact. Conversely, any significant breakdown could extend the correction phase, testing the resilience of the broader bull market. As the market approaches a pivotal decision point, investors are advised to closely monitor key price levels and on-chain activity for further clarity.