Bitcoin's Price Momentum: A Strategic Case for Immediate Investment in a Key Bullish Scenario

The cryptocurrency market is at a pivotal inflection point, with Bitcoin (BTC) poised to capitalize on a rare convergence of technical and macroeconomic tailwinds. While short-term volatility persists, the underlying fundamentals and momentum indicators paint a compelling case for immediate investment. This analysis synthesizes technical analysis and macroeconomic data to outline a bullish scenario for Bitcoin in late 2025.

Technical Analysis: A Rebound in the Making

Bitcoin's price action in October 2025 has been a tug-of-war between bearish and bullish forces. The formation of a death cross-where the 50-day moving average (MA) crossed below the 200-day MA-has historically signaled prolonged downtrends, as shown by 20 technical indicators. However, this bearish signal must be contextualized with other indicators.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits in the mid-30s, nearing oversold territory, while the MACD histogram has begun printing positive bars above the signal line, CoinDesk reports. These metrics suggest weakening bearish momentum and a potential short-term correction. Historically, Bitcoin has rallied when RSI exits oversold conditions, as seen in 2020 and 2023, Blockchain News noted.

Key support and resistance levels further reinforce this narrative. Bitcoin is currently testing the 200-day SMA at $107,846 and the 365-day SMA at $100,367, forming a compression zone that has historically held price for extended periods, EBC forecasts. A breakout above the 200-day SMA would invalidate the death cross and trigger a rally toward $125,000, a level supported by bullish divergence in the RSI and MACD, FinancialContent reported.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Institutional Adoption and Liquidity

Bitcoin's technical case is amplified by robust macroeconomic tailwinds. The Federal Reserve's September 2025 rate cut-reducing the federal funds rate to 4.00–4.25%-has injected liquidity into risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, CoinDesk reported. Lower real yields have made Bitcoin's inflation-hedging properties more attractive, particularly as U.S. CPI remains stubbornly elevated, Cointelegraph noted.

Institutional adoption is another critical driver. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded record inflows, with $5.95 billion in global inflows in October 2025 alone, Analytics Insight reported. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC dominate this trend, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $65 billion, Shib.io reported. These funds act as a liquidity magnet, ensuring sustained demand even during short-term corrections.

The weakening U.S. dollar further bolsters Bitcoin's appeal. As the dollar depreciates against major currencies, Bitcoin's dollar-denominated price becomes more accessible to international investors. This dynamic mirrors the 2020–2021 rally, where a dovish Fed and dollar weakness fueled BTC's ascent, Crowdfund Insider observed.

Convergence of Technical and Macro Signals

The interplay between technical and macroeconomic factors creates a self-reinforcing bullish scenario. For instance, Bitcoin's current price near the lower Bollinger Band indicates strong support, which aligns with the macroeconomic narrative of a weak dollar and accommodative monetary policy, Meyka's technicals. A breakout above $112,100-a key psychological level-would likely trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders and ETF inflows, accelerating the upward trajectory, CoinDesk warned.

However, risks remain. ETF outflows in October 2025, totaling $536 million, reflect short-term caution, CoinDesk reported. Yet, these outflows are a minor blip in the broader context of $1.2 billion in net inflows on a single day in May 2025, as earlier analysis showed. The key is to view these outflows as a buying opportunity rather than a bearish signal, especially as macroeconomic conditions continue to favor Bitcoin.

Conclusion: A Strategic Buy Opportunity

Bitcoin's price momentum in late 2025 is a masterclass in market dynamics. While the death cross raises concerns, the RSI's oversold condition, MACD's bullish crossover, and institutional inflows create a compelling case for a near-term rebound. Macroeconomic factors-Fed rate cuts, dollar weakness, and ETF adoption-further cement Bitcoin's role as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

For investors, the message is clear: now is the time to act. The convergence of technical and macroeconomic signals suggests that Bitcoin is on the cusp of a significant rally, with $125,000 as a near-term target and $135–$200,000 as a year-end possibility under a bull case (per an EBC forecast).