Bitcoin Price Holds Steady Amid Hash Rate Slide and Institutional ETF Flows

• Bitcoin trades near $64,830, supported by persistent institutional inflows and easing geopolitical tensions.
• The network hash rate has declined 19% over nine months as miners pivot to AI hosting for steadier margins.
• A recent firmware exploit in self-custody hardware highlights ongoing security risks for individual holders.
• Regulatory catalysts are delayed, with the CLARITY Act facing Senate delays ahead of the August recess.
• Mining companies report significant financial losses due to mark-to-market adjustments despite operational growth.

"Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,830, maintaining a position above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $64,670. The asset remains capped below the 100-day EMA at $67,049 and the 200-day EMA at $72,564, indicating a constrained broader trend with a tentative near-term constructive tone. Technical indicators support this modest recovery, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turning marginally positive. Immediate downside support is clustered around the 50-day EMA, with a stronger horizontal floor near $64,004. On the upside, buyers face initial resistance at the 100-day EMA, followed by the 200-day EMA. A reclaim of the distant horizontal barrier near $84,410 would be required to open a more decisive bullish phase.

Market sentiment is being influenced by persistent inflows into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and easing tensions in the Middle East, which have lifted overall risk appetite. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 has opened the door for institutional capital and mainstream investors. On August 6, total daily inflows reached $211 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT account for over $170 million. This institutional accumulation has helped Bitcoin outperform the broader crypto market, with its price correlating closely (58%) with the Dow Jones. Geopolitical easing, specifically improved U.S.-Iran talks and dropping oil prices, has further reduced pressure on risk assets.

However, institutional demand has shown inconsistency, highlighted by a $61.53 million net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which ended a three-week buying streak. Market maker Wintermute suggests that recent ETF activity may be driven by arbitrage strategies rather than fresh directional buying. Bitcoin's price trajectory is closely tied to broader macroeconomic indicators, particularly as stagflation concerns have resurfaced following U.S. manufacturing data that indicated slowing growth alongside rising input costs. This environment has prompted investors to adopt defensive positioning. Traders are currently awaiting the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which typically influences Federal Reserve rate expectations and market volatility.

Why Is The Bitcoin Hash Rate Declining For Nine Months?

Bitcoin's mining base is shrinking at an unprecedented pace, with the hash rate sliding for nine months. The 30-day mean hash rate has declined 19% since November 2025, dropping from 1,108 EH/s to 898 EH/s. According to Glassnode data, this nine-month decline is the longest in the network's history. The drop coincides with a massive capital migration by public mining firms, which now hold over $70 billion in AI contracts, suggesting converted capacity may never return to mining.

Unlike the 2021 collapse driven by a Chinese ban or the 2024 post-halving purge, this slump is structural. The network has lost approximately 210 EH/s in absolute terms, exceeding the total hash power present in early 2021. Mining difficulty has adjusted lower by 1.1% year-over-year, marking only the second time in history this has occurred, following the 2021 ban. The primary driver is the pivot to artificial intelligence. Miners are signing 12 to 20-year hosting leases for AI workloads, utilizing the same power infrastructure that previously ran ASICs. These contracts offer longer durations and steadier margins than Bitcoin mining.

TeraWulf exemplifies this shift, with its revenue mix flipping to 71% AI. Bitcoin mining revenue fell 73%, while AI-related leases climbed to 71% of sales. This inversion reflects a strategic pivot, though revenue from arrangements like Anthropic’s only begins in late 2027. Currently, companies absorb collapsing mining revenues while building AI infrastructure. The financial impact is evident in casualties like Poolin, which filed for Chapter 11 protection in late July. This structural change means the hash rate decline is not merely a temporary purge of inefficient rigs but a fundamental reallocation of industry resources toward the AI sector.

How Do Security And Regulatory Factors Impact Bitcoin?

On the crypto-specific front, security concerns persist. Reports of a Coldcard firmware exploit potentially exposing $100 million in Bitcoin have unsettled self-custody users, although investigations are ongoing. The market is reacting to a major security incident where a flaw in Coldcard firmware was exploited, resulting in the theft of approximately 1,816 BTC (worth ~$114 million) from over 5,200 addresses. This event has intensified the debate between self-custody and regulated solutions. Analysts suggest that if investors become spooked by self-custody risks, capital may shift toward regulated custodians and spot ETFs, reinforcing institutional demand.

Legislative progress also provides a positive backdrop, with the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) proposing standards for treating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, including custody rules and Proof-of-Reserves audits. Political support is growing, with Senator Rick Scott advocating for the advancement of the Bitcoin Clarity Act. Conversely, positive developments include Tether's announcement of its Hadron tokenization platform launch in Saudi Arabia, targeting institutional real estate assets under Vision 2030. Despite this, immediate price impact is expected to be limited.

Regulatory uncertainty remains a key headwind, with the CLARITY Act facing delays in the U.S. Senate ahead of the August recess, depriving markets of an anticipated catalyst. Meanwhile, BitMEX's planned delisting of Bitcoin futures ahead of its September shutdown removes a legacy derivatives venue. The emergence of the Bitcoin Red Team, which identified nearly 5,000 security issues in its first 30 hours, indicates a growing focus on ecosystem infrastructure security.

Mining companies report significant financial losses due to mark-to-market adjustments despite operational growth. MARA Holdings reported Q2 2026 revenue of $174.9 million, down from $238.5 million in the prior year period. The company posted a net loss of $611.3 million, or -$1.6 per diluted share, compared to a net income of $808.2 million in Q2 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was -$360.9 million, heavily impacted by Bitcoin mark-to-market changes, versus $1.2 billion in the prior year.

Operational metrics showed growth despite financial losses. Bitcoin production increased to 2,422 BTC (26.6 per day), up 64 BTC year-over-year, with 700 blocks won, a 1% increase. The company ended the quarter with 35,577 Bitcoin holdings, valued at approximately $2.1 billion at a $58,524 spot price. Efficiency improvements were noted, with energized hashrate rising 22% to 70.3 exahash per second. Cost per petahash improved 4% year-over-year to $27.7, and the cost per kilowatt-hour for own sites remained low at $0.04.