Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Hovers Above $87,000 Amid Risk-Averse New Year

Bitcoin opened 2026 near $87,000, recovering slightly after a 1% drop on December 31. The price remains within a tight range amid reduced retail demand and volatile ETF flows. Analysts have noted the coin's sideways movement within a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a potential breakout in the near term.

Institutional interest appears to be waning as of late 2025, but corporate buyers like Tether and Michael Saylor's Strategy have continued to accumulate Bitcoin. Tether's recent purchase of 8,888 BTC and Strategy's 35,102 BTC addition bring total corporate holdings to over 700,000 BTC. This trend indicates continued confidence in the asset despite recent drawdowns.

Derivatives data also reflect a decline in retail participation, with BTC futures Open Interest falling to $54.62 billion as of January 1. This represents a drop from the $94.12 billion peak in October 2025 and signals reduced leveraged exposure among traders.

Why Did This Happen?

The price of Bitcoin in 2025 was marked by consolidation and volatility following a sharp drawdown from its October 2025 peak. The coin fell 47% to $80,500 before stabilizing around $87,000 in early 2026 according to market analysis. Analysts attribute the pullback to macroeconomic uncertainty and slower-than-expected inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. For example, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $348 million on December 31, wiping out the previous day's inflow.

Technical indicators support the bearish narrative, with the SuperTrend and MACD signals confirming a sell-off. The BTC/USD pair has also dipped below the 50-week moving average, a historically bearish sign. However, some analysts argue that the price may find support near the 200-day SMA of $108,000 before resuming the downtrend.

How Did Markets React?

Despite the short-term volatility, long-term bulls remain confident in Bitcoin's structural growth. Standard Chartered and Bernstein have both maintained a $150,000 target for the end of 2026, citing improved institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. Grayscale also predicts a new all-time high in the first half of the year, driven by the end of the traditional four-year cycle.

Bitcoin's 200-day moving average turned bearish in late 2025 as it dipped below the 50-day MA, signaling a potential decline into 2026. Nevertheless, Cantor sees the long-term bull case intact, with tokenized real-world assets and prediction markets driving innovation. The firm also forecasts a $50 billion expansion in the tokenized asset market in 2026.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Market participants are closely watching the $85,000 support level and the $90,000 resistance. If Bitcoin breaks above $90,000, it could target $95,000 based on the triangle pattern according to technical analysis. A break below $85,000 would raise concerns about a deeper correction. In terms of ETF flows, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust recorded a $143 million inflow on January 1, breaking a seven-day outflow streak.

The broader market is also tracking macroeconomic signals. Tom Lee of Fundstrat argues that gold and silver trends have historically preceded Bitcoin rallies, suggesting a potential turnaround in 2026. Moreover, the Federal Reserve is set to inject liquidity into markets in early January, which could support risk-on assets.

Regulatory clarity is another key factor. The anticipated passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in 2026 is expected to reduce uncertainty and encourage more institutional participation according to market analysis. Cantor predicts this will lead to an acceleration in tokenized real-world asset adoption and convergence between decentralized and centralized markets.

As the year begins, Bitcoin's path will depend on a mix of technical, macroeconomic, and institutional factors. Short-term volatility is likely, but long-term fundamentals remain intact. Analysts are watching for signs of a breakout in early 2026 and whether the ETF sector can stabilize and resume growth.