Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Extends Gains as ETF Inflows Return and Traders Stay Calm Amid Venezuela Tensions

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to rise on Monday, trading above $92,500 after gaining over 4% in the previous week according to market analysis. This follows a net inflow of $458.77 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, marking the first weekly inflow since mid-December according to market data. The move ended two consecutive weeks of outflows, which had raised concerns about the strength of institutional demand for the asset according to analysts.

The recent geopolitical tensions surrounding the U.S. military strike on Venezuela did not trigger panic selling in the Bitcoin market according to market observations. On Saturday, the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, which initially raised concerns about market volatility according to reports. However, on-chain data from CryptoQuant showed no significant movement of Bitcoin into exchanges, suggesting traders remained composed according to technical indicators.

Exchange netflow indicators have rarely shown sustained negative patterns in response to geopolitical events since 2023 according to historical data. This suggests the market has become more resilient to localized military conflicts, with initial reactions fading quickly according to market analysis. Despite some price sensitivity, there are no signs of large-scale Bitcoin inflows into exchanges or panic selling according to market data.

Why Did This Happen?

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, moved $123 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum to Coinbase on January 2 according to financial reports. The transfers included 1,134 BTC and 7,255 ETH, valued at $101 million and $22 million respectively according to transaction details. This move came after the fund recorded $99.05 million in outflows from its Bitcoin ETF on December 31, as part of broader outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs according to market reports.

The transfers fueled speculation about a potential bearish shift in the market according to market analysis. Analysts warned that continued ETF outflows could push Bitcoin below $90,000, possibly toward the $50,000 range according to forecasts. However, long-term holders have stopped selling, indicating some resilience in the market according to investor behavior.

How Did Markets Respond?

Bitcoin’s price closed above the upper consolidation range of $90,000 on Saturday, and continued to rise slightly the next day according to market data. At the time of writing on Monday, BTC traded above $92,400 according to real-time data. If the upward trend continues, the price could extend toward the next resistance at $94,253 according to technical analysis.

The RSI on the daily chart reads 61, above the neutral level of 50, indicating bullish momentum is gaining traction according to technical indicators. In addition, the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, further supporting the positive outlook according to technical analysis. However, if BTC faces a correction, it could extend the decline toward the key support level at $90,000 according to market analysis.

Ethereum also saw a rebound, with a 2.25% increase in 24 hours to approximately $3,048 according to trading data. Trading volume for Ethereum climbed by 7.12%, suggesting renewed investor interest in the second-largest cryptocurrency according to market data.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts remain cautious as BlackRock’s silence on its motives continues to fuel speculation according to market reports. CoinLaw’s founder noted that BlackRock’s movements are not made lightly and that this transfer sends a strong signal to the market according to analysis. The timing of the move—right after a massive ETF outflow and during a $2.2 billion options expiry—has raised questions about the firm’s strategy according to market commentary.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin could see a significant boost in 2026, with several catalysts on the horizon according to market forecasts. These include the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, which would classify Bitcoin as a digital commodity and unlock institutional access to the market according to regulatory analysis. Spot ETF inflows are also expected to continue, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund reaching $100 billion in AUM according to financial projections.

The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, proposed by President Trump, could also add programmatic buying pressure to the market according to policy analysis. The plan calls for the government to hold 198,000–207,000 BTC, with additional acquisitions planned over five years according to policy details. If implemented, this could represent $100–200 billion in demand—far exceeding the annual new supply of Bitcoin according to market estimates.

Corporate treasuries are also accumulating Bitcoin, with 172 public companies holding approximately 1.06 million BTC according to corporate data. This trend is expected to continue as more companies recognize the benefits of on-balance-sheet crypto holdings according to market trends.

Asian stocks rose on Monday, with AI-linked themes in focus, while oil prices dipped amid expectations that U.S. military action in Venezuela would not disrupt the energy market according to market analysis. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 1.4% to a record high according to market data. Meanwhile, S&P 500 e-mini futures traded 0.2% higher, indicating investors are looking past geopolitical developments ahead of a busy week of economic data according to futures analysis.

Overall, the market appears to be moving past short-term volatility as it focuses on long-term fundamentals. If ETF inflows resume and institutional demand strengthens, Bitcoin could see a renewed price rally in the coming months according to market forecasts.