Bitcoin Price Forecast for August 19: A False Breakout and Bearish Outlook

Bitcoin (BTC) price has risen by 0.35% over the past day. On the hourly chart, the rate has made a false breakout of the support level of $114,871. The longer time frame shows a bounce off yesterday's bar low at $114,706. If it breaks out, the fall is likely to continue to the $112,000-$113,000 zone. The midterm view is bearish as the rate is falling after a previous bearish bar's closure. Bitcoin is currently trading at $115,599.

Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced a 0.35% increase over the past day, reaching a rate of $115,599. However, the hourly chart indicates a false breakout of the support level at $114,871. This was followed by a bounce off yesterday's bar low at $114,706. If the price breaks out, a continued fall is expected to the $112,000-$113,000 zone [1].

The midterm outlook for Bitcoin is bearish, as the rate is falling after the closure of a previous bearish bar. The market sentiment has shifted towards risk-off, with liquidations totaling over $500 million in the last 24 hours [2].

The CME FedWatch tool suggests a 95.8% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, which could lower borrowing costs and increase liquidity, prompting investors to shift into risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies [1]. However, this has not yet materialized, and the current market conditions indicate a shift towards risk-off sentiment.

Institutional interest in top cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remains strong, with US institutions investing $547.82 billion in Bitcoin and $2.85 billion in Ethereum over the past week [2]. This indicates a level of confidence in these assets despite the recent market volatility.

The ascending parallel channel pattern on the 4-hour chart suggests a continuation of the prevailing uptrend for Bitcoin, with the token currently retracing after touching the channel's upper boundary. If the price holds support at approximately $120,500, it could rebound towards $127,000 in the next leg higher [1].

However, the dense concentration of long liquidation levels clustered around $120,000-$121,000 could trigger a cascade of forced selling if the price retreats into this zone, accelerating downside pressure [1].

The momentum indicators, such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), also suggest a decline in buying pressure and an increase in bearish momentum, further reinforcing the bearish midterm view [2].

References:
[1] https://crypto.news/bitcoin-price-hits-new-all-time-high-whats-next/
[2] https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-risk-further-losses-as-liquidations-cross-500-million-202508181127