Bitcoin's Price Drops 10% Since May 22 Peak, Shows Resilience

Bitcoin's price action has recently formed a descending channel, characterized by lower highs and lower lows between two downward-sloping trendlines. This pattern indicates a persistent bearish structure, which began on May 22 when the price hit a high of $112,000. Following this peak, the price fell approximately 10% to around $100,000. On June 10, it made a lower high at $110,000, followed by a roughly 10% correction, taking it slightly below $100,000 during market reactions tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict.

As of June 30, bitcoin reached around $109,000 before pulling back about 3%, but has since recovered to nearly $108,000. The recent dips appear to be getting shallower. During the latest dip, there was a CME futures gap around $106,000, which was “filled” as bitcoin dropped to around $105,000. A CME gap occurs when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange closes for the weekend or overnight and bitcoin’s price moves significantly during that time, leaving a price range on the CME chart where no trading took place, which markets often tend to revisit to “fill” the gap.

According to Glassnode data, bitcoin’s pullbacks remain relatively shallow and the price is still trading above its 1-month realized price, which represents the average price investors paid over the past 30 days. In the past 24 hours, investors have an average cost basis of $105,600, while the one-week group sits at $106,300. These short-term holder cohorts are still in profit, which supports market momentum, although continued profit-taking could make it more challenging for bitcoin to reach new all-time highs.

Technical chart signals continue to indicate pressure, but the shallower dips hint at resilience in the market. The descending channel suggests a bearish trend, but the fact that bitcoin is still trading above its 1-month realized price and that short-term holders are still in profit indicates that the market may not be as bearish as the technical indicators suggest. This resilience could be a sign that the market is finding support at current levels and that further dips may be limited.